NFL: 325 nonillion ways to end the season
The NFL’s best teams have distinguished themselves. The Rams. The Saints. The Chiefs. The Steelers. The Patriots, maybe. As long as they remember how to get to the stadium, all those teams should qualify for the playoffs, and soon.
The NFL’s best teams have distinguished themselves. The Rams. The Saints. The Chiefs. The Steelers. The Patriots, maybe. As long as they remember how to get to the stadium, all those teams should qualify for the playoffs, and soon.
The majority of the postseason field, though, will come from a group that now abides game to game, improving their position one week, undermining it the next, dragging suspense from one locale to the next. The Week 11 slate just happens to be the perfect introduction to the mayhem, with several matchups pitting teams separated by a game, or none.
Bears vs. Vikings. Bengals vs. Ravens. Falcons vs. Cowboys. Colts vs. Titans.
According to The New York Times’s Playoff Simulator, there are 325 nonillion ways the season could end. That’s 325 followed by 30 zeros. So, a lot.
Let the chaos begin.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (6-3)
The Texans have about a 76 percent chance to make the playoffs.
If the ball is anywhere near DeAndre Hopkins, he catches it. He has not dropped any of the 89 passes tossed his way this season, the most targets of any receiver yet to mishandle a throw, according to Pro Football Focus. And of the 69 passes thrown to him PFF deemed catchable, only six were defended. He caught the other 63. Naturally.
Crucial game: The Texans traded up with Cleveland in 2017 to take Deshaun Watson, who has blossomed into one of the league’s best young quarterbacks. The Browns were vilified for not taking Watson (or Mitchell Trubisky, or Patrick Mahomes) that year, but they (potentially) redeemed themselves by drafting Baker Mayfield at No. 1 in April. If on the morning of their Week 13 clash Mayfield again wakes up feeling dangerous, Houston should guard for an upset.
Tennessee Titans (5-4)
49 percent chance to make playoffs
The stingiest scoring defense (16.8) in the NFL resides in Nashville, where the Titans are led by the game’s premier run-stuffing nose tackle. Jurrell Casey has been responsible for a stop — a rushing play that loses yardage, as defined by Pro Football Focus — on a league-leading 13 percent (21 of 161) of his run defense snaps.
Crucial game: The first time they played, back in Week 2, the Titans outlasted Houston at home. Winning the rematch, on Monday Night Football in Week 12, would cast Tennessee as the division favorite heading into the final month.
Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
15 percent chance to make playoffs
After losing at Philadelphia in Week 3, quarterback Andrew Luck bemoaned the Colts’ inefficiency on third down, calling their 16.7 conversion rate (2 of 12) unacceptable. Now the Colts have the best third-down offense in the NFL, succeeding on 52.4 percent of their tries overall and 59.5 percent (22 of 37) in their last three games, all victories.
Crucial game: The third-place Colts must play second-place Tennessee twice. But in all likelihood, their season hinges on their Week 14 game at Houston, where a loss would doom Indianapolis to a fourth straight year out of the playoffs.
AFC EAST
Miami Dolphins (5-5)
16 percent chance to make playoffs
If a team, like the Dolphins, doesn’t score often — they’re one of eight averaging fewer than 20 points per game — then it would behoove them to play ferocious defense. Alas, Miami does not. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 142 rushing yards, most in the league, and are the only team to have yielded at least 150 rushing yards as many as five times.
Crucial game: Every game is critical for the Dolphins, who have squandered a 3-0 start by losing five of their last eight. But a victory Week 12 at Indianapolis would serve two functions: dent the surging Colts’ hopes while improving their own heading into a home game the following week against Buffalo.
AFC WEST
Los Angeles
Chargers (7-2)
91 percent chance to make playoffs
On pace to set career marks in several passing categories, from yards per attempt to touchdowns, Philip Rivers, at almost 37, is having the best season of his career. One reason has been his efficiency under pressure. No quarterback has a higher passer rating in that situation than Rivers (102.9), according to Pro Football Focus.
Crucial game: The Chargers have fattened their record by throttling middling (or worse) teams, like Buffalo, Cleveland and Oakland. They are 1-2 against playoff teams — losing, by double digits, to Kansas City and the Rams, and escaping with a 1-point victory against Tennessee. The Chargers can enhance their postseason candidacy Week 13 at Pittsburgh, which, by then, could very well be on a seven-game winning streak.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
33 percent chance to make playoffs
The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin, the day after his unit gave up 51 points in a loss to New Orleans. Just how dreadful has their defense been? Only the 2012 Saints have allowed more yards through a team’s first nine games than Cincinnati (4,091) since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, according to Pro Football Reference, and only nine other teams over the same span have given up as many as the Bengals’ 288 points.
Crucial game: Somehow, the Bengals begin Week 11 with a winning record, seventh in the conference, just out of the playoffs. It’s conceivable that they stay relevant deep into December, too. The outcome of their Week 14 game against the Los Angeles Chargers — one of the two presumptive wild cards — could be meaningful for tiebreaker purposes.
Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
27 percent chance to make playoffs
Through Week 6, when it shut out the Titans on the road, Baltimore had allowed the fewest yards and the fewest points in the NFL. Then came a three-game losing streak, to contenders New Orleans, Carolina and Pittsburgh, that exposed the Ravens’ defense. Over that span, according to Pro Football Reference, they ceded more points, 83, than all but three teams, and more yards per game, 373.3, than all but five.
Crucial game: Baltimore has lost its last three. A fourth consecutive defeat, in Week 11 against Cincinnati, which drilled the Ravens in Week 2, would shove them to the periphery of the playoff standings and further threaten coach John Harbaugh’s job security.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers (6-3)
69 percent chance to make playoffs
The Panthers’ offense abides by a simple premise: Get the ball to Christian McCaffrey. Lining him up everywhere from the slot to the backfield, Carolina deploys McCaffrey much as New Orleans uses its versatile running back, Alvin Kamara. They have each rushed 123 times, and Kamara, with 55 catches, has one more than McCaffrey, whose 1,018 yards from scrimmage are the seventh-most in the league.
Crucial game: Through a scheduling quirk, Carolina plays New Orleans twice over the final three weeks. By then, though, the division race might be over. To advance to the playoffs, the Panthers almost certainly will have to do so as a wild card, making their Week 12 game against Seattle, vying for one of the same two berths, all the more vital.
Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
18 percent chance to make playoffs
The most prolific passer in the NFL this season is not Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff or Ben Roethlisberger. It is Matt Ryan, who’s averaging 335 yards per game, easily the most of his career. If he continues at his current rate, Ryan will throw for the third-most yards in a season in league history.
Crucial game: The Falcons’ playoff odds plunged with a loss last week in Cleveland. Considering the depth in the NFC, Atlanta must defeat Dallas at home on Sunday to sustain their chances, however slim they are.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (6-3)
74 percent chance to make playoffs
The arrival of edge-rushing dynamo Khalil Mack may have solidified a defense that has forced 24 turnovers, second-most in the NFL, but it is the Bears’ secondary that has powered their revival. That unit has accounted for 13 takeaways and, according to Pro Football Focus’s grading, has provided the best pass coverage in the league.
Crucial game: Chicago has yet to face an offense as powerful as the Rams’, nor has it encountered a pass-rush as fierce. A victory against Los Angeles in Week 14, in the December chill at Soldier Field, would reveal whether the Bears’ defense is as good as they — and others — think it is.
Minnesota
Vikings (5-3-1)
59 percent chance to make playoffs
To call Adam Thielen merely an elite slot receiver does him a disservice. He is an elite receiver, period. But of his 78 receptions, which are tied with the Saints’ Michael Thomas for most in the NFL, a league-leading 49 have come when he was lined up in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. He excels at the deep ball, too, catching a league-high 75 percent of passes traveling at least 20 yards.
Crucial game: What’s that old saying — to be the best, you have to beat the best? The Vikings’ remaining opponents are a combined 36-30-1, with only two of their seven games coming against teams with losing records. Minnesota will know where it stands in the playoff chase after its next two games, both against the other top teams in the division, prime-time affairs at Chicago and at home against Green Bay.
Green Bay
Packers (4-5-1)
21 percent chance to make the playoffs
Aaron Rodgers normally protects a double-digit lead like it’s treasure — except for this season. The Packers have already lost as many games in which they’ve led by at least 10 points, according to ESPN, as they had with Rodgers from 2011 to 2017, when they went 59-2. The three games Green Bay failed to win in those circumstances — defeats at Seattle and the Rams, and a tie against Minnesota — have imperiled its season.
Crucial game: The Packers’ biggest swing game, at present, is in Week 12 against Minnesota, with an absolute difference of 31 percentage points, according to the Playoff Simulator. If Green Bay loses, its odds of making the playoffs drop to 8 percent. But if it wins, it soars to 39, with games against fellow contenders Atlanta and Chicago still to come.
NFC EAST
Washington Redskins (6-3)
74 percent chance to make playoffs
The renaissance of Adrian Peterson, at age 33, has fueled a ball-control offense that has committed seven turnovers, tied for fewest in the NFL, and ranks third in time of possession, at 31:27. According to Pro Football Focus, only four running backs — Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, James Conner and Saquon Barkley — have avoided more tackles rushing and receiving than Peterson, who has evaded 37.
Crucial game: Washington’s favorable strength of schedule — its last seven opponents, which includes Philadelphia twice, are 27-35 — facilitates its path to the postseason. Four divisional matchups remain, none more significant than their first, on Thanksgiving at Dallas, which trails Washington by two games. Washington won the teams’ first meeting, and a season sweep — and, thus, the head-to-head tiebreaker — would effectively grant it a two-game advantage over the Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
24 percent chance to make playoffs
A distinct pattern has emerged for Dallas through nine games. When the Cowboys don’t turn over the ball, they’re 4-0. When they do, they’re 0-5.
Crucial game: Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones said his team can “certainly” win the NFC East. By Thanksgiving dinner, Jones will know for sure. A loss that afternoon to Washington would shred their hopes.
Philadelphia
Eagles (4-5)
20 percent chance to make playoffs
In their Super Bowl season, the Eagles pressured teams by scoring early and often, ranking third in points tallied both in the first quarter and the first half, according to Pro Football Reference. Through their first nine games, the Eagles have scored in the first quarter only twice — 7 against Indianapolis in Week 3 and 14 against the Giants in Week 6. Their 21 first-quarter points are the fewest in the NFL.
Crucial game: Technically, the Eagles have a chance to defend their title until they’re eliminated from contention. Realistically, that chance evaporates if they lose at Dallas, which beat Philadelphia last week, in Week 14.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
35 percent chance to make the playoffs
A powerful rushing offense was Seattle’s specialty during its NFC West reign. A dreadful rushing offense was Seattle’s deficiency its last few seasons. These Seahawks have revived it, gaining 173 yards against Green Bay on Thursday night, four days after gashing the Rams for 273. According to ESPN, the Seahawks are the first team since the 2004 Falcons to rush for at least 150 yards in seven consecutive games.
Crucial game: Their next one, and that’s not blithering coach speak. The Seahawks’ probability of reaching the playoffs improve to 61 percent if they win at Carolina, and it plunges to 19 if they lose, according to the Playoff Simulator. If Seattle can survive the Panthers, it has two tough games — Kansas City and Minnesota, both at home — and three against San Francisco (two) and Arizona, who are a combined 4-15.
