The forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana continues to show the storm will pass south of the Big Island as a hurricane, but the system still has the potential to hit the southeast flank of the island with torrential rain and hurricane force winds early Saturday.
The cyclone was forecast to build into a hurricane on Friday, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. Thursday. It could bring 75 mph winds and dump 20 inches of rain on southeast slopes. Surf to 30 feet could impact south shorelines, leaving coastal areas in lower Puna — where Tropical Storm Iselle already knocked homes off of foundations — at risk of wave damage and flooding.
The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm watch for the Big Island on Wednesday evening and a flood watch was slated to go into effect at noon Friday through 6 p.m. Sunday.
A tropical storm warning was slated to go into effect Thursday night for Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles, including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals. A hurricane warning was expected to be issued for the offshore waters Friday afternoon.
Big Island public schools will close Friday ahead of Ana, and Mayor Billy Kenoi was set to sign an emergency proclamation Thursday. Gov. Neil Abercrombie has already proclaimed an emergency to help the state respond to the approaching storm. The proclamation continues through Oct. 24.
Residents should brace for power outages, downed trees, flash flooding, mudslides and wave damage at least on the order of Iselle when it struck Puna, said NWS forecaster Chris Brenchley.
“We need to be prepared for at least that level of impact anywhere across the state,” Brenchley said at a media briefing in Honolulu, but also cautioned that the forecast track remains uncertain and that Ana may not even hit the islands.
Ana was about 465 miles southeast of Hilo mid-morning Thursday with 60 mph winds and traveling west at 8 mph. Tropical storm force winds extended 60 miles from the center. The cyclone, as of 5 a.m. Thursday, was forecast to peak with 75 mph winds on Friday, when wind shear and drier air would begin to weaken the system.
Southeast shores should begin to see increased swell late Thursday, with the largest and most damaging waves Friday night.
The Hawaii Fire Department, community emergency response team members and Civil Defense are going door to door from Kapoho to Kalapana warning residents, Civil Defense Chief Darryl Oliveira said. The same measures will be taken in low-lying areas of Ka‘u and West Hawaii on Thursday.
The county will also do helicopter flights over low-lying areas to warn campers to leave. County beach parks and campgrounds will close on Friday, Oliveira said.
Given the storm’s southerly approach, the island’s two massive peaks are less likely to buffer West Hawaii from the damage the way they did with Iselle.
“If Ana does stay south of the Big Island, the influences of the terrain could be minor,” said Tom Evans, meteorologist with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
To maintain their power, cyclones need to stay vertically stacked. When Iselle plowed into the island early Aug. 8, Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea hung up the bottom of the storm column and severely weakened the system as it continued up the island chain. That buffering effect may not happen this time, and Ana is forecast to approach Oahu and Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds on Sunday. Additionally, the storm is expected to slow down as it approaches the islands.
A ridge of high pressure has steered Ana to the west, but a shift in the ridge Thursday was expected to bring the cyclone on a more northwesterly track toward the island. Ana was running into 11 mph shear out of the northwest on Wednesday, but that wasn’t enough to counteract the effects of warm water fueling the system, forecasters said.
Civil Defense may begin opening emergency shelters as early as Friday morning, depending on how forecasts unfold, Oliveira said. However, shelters may open sooner if surf begins to impact coastal communities, he said.
Should the shelters open, people need to bring all their own supplies, said Barney Sheffield, the island’s disaster manager for the American Red Cross.
“We won’t be providing anything but a safe place from the storm,” he said on Tuesday. “Afterward, we’ll evaluate if we need long-term shelters depending on the level of destruction.”
Concerns about the approaching storm prompted cancellation of events for the weekend, including the Mayor’s Health Fest and Keiki Triathlon on Saturday and the West Hawaii County Band performance at Hale Halawai on Friday. The U.S. Coast Guard is urging vessel owners to secure their boats and for visitors and residents to be wary of rip tides and high surf ahead of the storm. Hawaii Electric Light Co. is gearing up for an islandwide response to wind damage to the power grid, the company’s administrative manager Rhea Lee said.
In Ocean View, lines at the gas pumps were backing up and residents were buying water, toilet paper, beans and beer, said Sandi Alexander, a member of the Ocean View Community Emergency Response Team.
“A couple of businesses just left plywood up (after Iselle),” Alexander said. “I think they’re just waiting for the end of hurricane season.”
Iselle damaged fruit, flower and coffee farms in Puna and Ka‘u. Chris Manfredi, Hawaii Farm Bureau Federation president, feared worse effects from a direct hit by Ana on southwest island farmers.
“This time, the topography is not favorable,” he said. “It’s a very different storm.”
Trinidad Marques, owner of Alii Hawaiian Hula Hands Coffee farm in Pahala, had 400 coffee trees damaged by Iselle. Marques was boarding up windows this week and worried the farm will see greater damage this time.
“As far as the farm what can we do? It’s out in the open,” Marques said.
“It’s the winds that scare us,” she said.
For more information on hurricane preparedness, click here.
For details on events cancelled ahead of Tropical Storm Ana, click here.
For the full list of school closures, click here.
For more information on park closures, click here.
