College football storylines, Week 9: Big Ten bragging rights, Georgia’s dominance, Ole Miss-Auburn fireworks and more
From big games in the Big Ten and the SEC to a bit of Group of Five intrigue, there’s plenty to like in Week 9 of the college football season. Here’s what to watch:
Big Ten bragging rights
After this weekend, there won’t be much debate about who the two best teams in the Big Ten are.
On Saturday, No. 8 Michigan State hosts No. 6 Michigan, while No. 20 Penn State travels to Columbus to face No. 5 Ohio State. Only one of those teams can win its division, but given the lack of top contenders in the West, it’s safe to assume whoever emerges from the East will be the Big Ten champion — and a likely playoff participant.
After some early hiccups, Ohio State is the clear favorite. The Buckeyes have been dominant of late, outscoring their last three opponents by an average of 45 points per game to climb to No. 1 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, an opponent- and tempo-adjusted measure of efficiency.
Since coach Ryan Day took play-calling duties away from defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs after a 35-28 loss to Oregon, Ohio State’s defense ranks eighth in defensive expected points allowed per play, according to FiveThirtyEight. Against a Penn State offense that struggled to score from the 2-yard line in a nine-overtime loss to Illinois last weekend, the Buckeyes’ defense should be just fine. The 18.5-point spread indicates as much.
That makes the annual in-state rivalry game between the Wolverines and Spartans that much more interesting. With Penn State dealing with questions surrounding coach James Franklin’s future during its two-game losing streak, Michigan and Michigan State have emerged as legitimate Big Ten contenders. Both have found success running the ball this season, with Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III emerging as a Heisman Trophy candidate for the Spartans and Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins forming a standout one-two punch for the Wolverines.
But to compete with Ohio State, quarterbacks Payton Thorne and Cade McNamara need to be at the top of their game. The Buckeyes’ C.J. Stroud might be playing better than any quarterback in the country this season, ranking first in Total QBR (91.7). We’ll see Saturday whether Thorne or McNamara can elevate their offenses enough to have any chance of keeping up with the Buckeyes later this season.
Last hurdle for Georgia?
Outside of starting quarterback JT Daniels’ extended absence, the season has pretty much broken perfectly for No. 1 Georgia. The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country by a wide margin, the offense has done enough to win under backup Stetson Bennett and Alabama looks (somewhat) vulnerable. That’s what makes Saturday’s game against Florida so fascinating.
What’s usually a midseason hurdle in Jacksonville has become less daunting, thanks to the Gators’ struggles in coach Dan Mullen’s fourth season. Florida (4-3) is coming off a 49-42 loss to LSU and has yet to figure out its quarterback situation, with Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson both expected to play Saturday. That doesn’t sound like a team capable of taking down the top-ranked team in the country.
If Georgia can win Saturday, all it has left on the schedule before a likely showdown with Alabama in the SEC championship game is Missouri, Tennessee, Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech, who are a combined 12-16 this season. With Daniels reportedly preparing to play without limitations Saturday, this could be the last chance to see Georgia at full strength against quality competition before the postseason.
Ole Miss-Auburn fireworks
There might not be a more entertaining team in the country this season than Ole Miss, and there might not be a more entertaining venue for an SEC game than Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium. From the “Kick-Six” to the “Prayer at Jordan-Hare,” there have been some unforgettable moments when the Tigers play a big game at home. What does Saturday night have in store?
Ole Miss’ Matt Corral is making a strong push to be one of the first quarterbacks off the board in the 2022 NFL draft, and he’ll have his hands full against a defense that ranks 15th nationally in efficiency. His counterpart Bo Nix has been his usual erratic self but is coming off one of the best games of his career in a 38-23 win over Arkansas. We might see some truly incredible plays, both good and bad.
There’s plenty at stake, too. Ole Miss hasn’t finished a season inside the top 10 since 2015 and has won 10 or more games just once since 2003. If coach Lane Kiffin keeps this up, he might be the top candidate for some big-time openings in December.
Also keep an eye on…
— No. 19 SMU at Houston: There’s more bad blood between these in-state rivals than you might think, and the Mustangs’ undefeated record only adds to the intrigue. The Cougars have won six straight since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech, averaging 38 points per game during that stretch. SMU’s Tanner Mordecai and Houston’s Clayton Tune are two of the best quarterbacks in the country and should light up the scoreboard in what Vegas thinks is basically a toss-up.
— No. 12 Kentucky at Mississippi State: Thanks to a 6-1 start, Kentucky has a good chance to reach a New Year’s Six bowl game for the first time since 1993. The Wildcats’ ground-and-pound offense facing off against Bulldogs coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid is an intriguing contrast of styles.
— North Carolina at No. 11 Notre Dame: North Carolina has disappointed after being ranked in the top 10 to start the season, but the Tar Heels are better than their 4-3 record might indicate. How will quarterback Sam Howell, a potential first-round draft pick, handle a tough Notre Dame defense?
— Miami at No. 17 Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh’s rise to the top of the ACC behind quarterback Kenny Pickett is one of the best stories of the season. Miami, meanwhile, can’t seem to get out of its own way under coach Manny Diaz. There’s serious letdown potential here after the Panthers knocked off Clemson last week, but the Hurricanes need to prove they’re capable of beating a top team first.
— Florida State at Clemson: Dare I say that Florida State is playing better than Clemson right now? That seemed impossible when the season began, but the Tigers have yet to figure out their issues on offense and might have quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei on a short leash Saturday. Nobody is going to forget the Seminoles’ 0-4 start, but a three-game winning streak should give coach Mike Norvell’s team some confidence going forward.
— No. 9 Iowa at Wisconsin: If you like defense, this is the game for you. The over/under points total opened at 36.5 and has stayed there entering the weekend. According to gambling website Covers, there have only been 16 totals of 37 or less since 2010. Big Ten football, everyone.
— Texas at No. 16 Baylor: Can Texas end its two-game slide? The Longhorns face their third straight ranked opponent and desperately need a win to have any hope of reaching the Big 12 championship game. The Bears are riding a two-game winning streak and seem to have found a formula for success under coach Dave Aranda.
— Texas Tech at No. 4 Oklahoma: Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams continues to live up to the hype. The Sooners struggled as big favorites early last week against Kansas before Williams took over to deliver 35 second-half points. The Red Raiders just fired coach Matt Wells, so it’s anyone guess how they’ll respond Saturday.
— Virginia at No. 25 BYU: Bronco Mendenhall revenge game! The former BYU coach has built a consistent winner at Virginia since taking over a moribund program in 2016. He’d like nothing more than to prove he made the right decision by upsetting his former team.
— Duke at No. 13 Wake Forest: If you haven’t paid attention to Wake Forest, just know that they scored 70 points in 17 minutes of possession time in last week’s wild win over Army. Quarterback Sam Hartman is piloting coach Dave Clawson’s offense to perfection, and it could lead to an ACC title. Now the question is whether Clawson decides to leave for a bigger job.
— Fresno State at No. 21 San Diego State: Quarterback Jake Haener leads an aggressive Fresno State offense against one of the nation’s best defenses. The Aztecs rank fifth overall in defensive efficiency this season, which has carried an anemic offense to a perfect 6-0 start. This could be the week the winning streak finally ends.
— Charlotte at Western Kentucky: If you like points, this is the game for you. Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe leads the country in passing touchdowns (29) and is fourth in passing yards (3,014) and is sure to pile up some big numbers against one of the nation’s worst defenses.
— UTEP at Florida Atlantic: We’re going to start the drumbeat now. If UTEP wins Saturday to get to 7-1, ESPN’s “College GameDay” must consider hosting its show from El Paso for next weekend’s matchup against No. 23 UTSA. The Miners (6-1) have already won more games this season than they have in the last four combined, while the Roadrunners (8-0) have already won more games than they ever have since joining Conference USA in 2013. Two historically mediocre programs reaching such heights must be celebrated.