By Ben Hubbard and Steven Erlanger NYTimes News Service
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ISTANBUL — For months, NATO leaders had hoped that when they convened for their annual summit next week, they could use the occasion to welcome Sweden as the alliance’s newest member.

Now that outcome appears all but impossible, as stalling by Hungary and continued objections by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey have drawn out the process, raising questions about when Sweden might be able to join and what sort of breakthrough would be necessary.

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All 31 member states must agree to admit new members, and the split over Sweden risks denting the alliance’s ability to project a united front against President Vladimir Putin of Russia as his forces seek to beat back a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

NATO officials say the hope is to get all of the alliance’s leaders to agree at the two-day summit set to begin Tuesday in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, to let Sweden join. Then, the thinking goes, Erdogan and Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary can push the approval through their parliaments.

To that end, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met the foreign ministers and senior intelligence officials from Turkey, Sweden and Finland in Brussels on Thursday in an effort to convince the Turks that Sweden, like Finland, has done enough to overcome Turkish objections.

“We all agreed we have made good progress,” he told a news conference afterward. “We all want to complete this process as soon as possible.”

So in Vilnius on Monday, Stoltenberg said, he will meet with Erdogan and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden to try to get Erdogan’s agreement to support Swedish membership at the summit, with parliamentary ratification to follow.

“Now it is time for Sweden to join the alliance,” Stoltenberg said. “Further delay in Sweden’s membership would be welcomed” by Kurdish terrorists and Putin, he said.

On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto of Hungary told reporters that he was in touch with his Turkish counterpart and that if the Turkish position changed, Hungary would not obstruct the process.

That leaves the ball in Erdogan’s court, and if next week’s summit ends with no agreement, it is unclear what would break the deadlock. NATO officials worry that Swedish membership could linger for months, a symbolic victory for Putin and loss for the alliance.

At the same time, Stoltenberg argued in an interview that Sweden was already involved in all NATO meetings and in defense planning and military exercises. But Sweden would remain outside NATO’s commitment to collective defense, a core purpose of the alliance.

“If there no agreement in Vilnius, then we have crisis in NATO, period,” said Marc Pierini, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and a former European Union ambassador to Turkey.

On Wednesday in Washington, President Joe Biden met Kristersson to repeat the U.S.’ support for Swedish membership. Biden said he was “anxiously looking forward” to that day but conceded that the decision rests in the hands of Erdogan.

“I want to reiterate the United States fully, fully, fully supports Sweden’s membership in NATO,” Biden said. “The bottom line is simple: Sweden is going to make our alliance stronger.”

In the 14 months since Sweden applied to join, the issue of its ascension has become ensnared in a web of issues.

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