Hawaii auto sales continued to fall this year and badly trailed the rest of the country — with an uncertain future ahead because of President Donald Trump’s economic policies, the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association reported Wednesday.
Auto sales on the mainland increased 4.2% for the first three months of the year compared to the same time last year.
But Hawaii dealers saw a drop of 1.3%, based on new vehicle registrations for the first three months of 2025.
Hawaii’s first-quarter performance represents more bad news for local auto dealers following three consecutive years of drooping sales.
In 2024, overall sales for the year were down 3.1% compared with 2023, when sales fell 2.5%.
In 2022, sales were off a massive 12.5% compared with 2021.
It does not look like Hawaii auto sales should expect a quick rebound for the rest of 2025 following a disappointing first quarter.
“Pent-up demand, combined with improvements in affordability, were expected to propel the market in 2025,” according to the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association’s outlook on Wednesday. “However, the potential overhaul of U.S. trade policy has added significant unknowns into the new vehicle sales outlook.”
“After the events of the past few weeks, it’s safe to say that things are likely to change, so stay tuned.”
The Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association’s report was based on registrations of new vehicles, but sales are also sluggish for used cars, said Mostafa “Mo” Saad, owner of Autozilla Car Buying Center, which deals in used vehicles.
People with “nice cars” are hanging onto them and those looking to buy are driving tough bargains, Saad said.
“Everyone is waiting for nicer prices,” he said. “With the tariffs, everybody is in limbo now. Those that are in the market to buy know there’s less demand and more supply. So they’re bargaining a lot.”
“Because people are waiting, we’re not selling and we’re not buying,” he said.
Saad appreciates Trump’s overall aim to encourage more U.S. manufacturing, but it won’t happen overnight.
“I understand the bigger goals of manufacturing cars in the United States, but we have to go through a lot of pain to get to the gain,” he said.
The dealers association’s outlook offered three potential scenarios of what could happen next after “some tariffs were dialed back in early April. But automotive and raw material tariffs are still in place, and the trade scenario is far from settled.”
None of the possibilities are great.
One possibility would lead to sales of 43,700 units, which would still represent an overall reduction of 3.2% compared to 2024.
That could happen if tariffs get reduced but are still higher than before Trump returned to the White House in January.
The result would see prices increase “by no more than 5%; minimal interest rate cuts by the Fed; inflation drifts higher; and economic growth slows,” according to the dealers association’s scenario.
In the second possibility, “tariffs are largely removed and revert to prior levels; vehicle prices remain stable; several interest rate reductions by the Fed; inflation eases; and economic growth improves as the year progresses. This is similar to the forecast projection in January of this year” that did not become reality.
The result would mean 46,100 units are sold, which would represent an increase of 2.1% compared to 2024.
The worse possibility could happen if “tensions escalate and tariffs are increased; vehicle prices surge by roughly 10%; no interest rate cuts; inflation accelerates; and the economy enters recession.”
The result would mean an overall drop in sales of 10.7% compared with 2024, according to the dealers association.
The first-quarter sales data means more bad news for a Hawaii economy already struggling with higher costs and continued uncertainty over Trump’s economic policies, which have triggered havoc in the U.S. stock market and the wider global economy.
And it comes as the Chamber of Commerce Hawaii continues to survey island businesses specifically on how they’ve been affected by Trump’s tariffs and how they are responding.
Preliminary results showed just under 90% of the respondents reported that the tariffs have affected their supply-chain costs and product pricing.
As a result, most businesses, or nearly 67%, plan to cut back on capital investments or expansions, followed by over 44% that plan to reduce marketing and advertising and over 38% that expect to reduce hiring and staffing.
Sales of light trucks continue to dominate Hawaii’s market, representing just over 80% of business so far this year.
Sales of Japanese brands also continue to dominate, representing over 52% of all sales compared to more than 27% of domestic brands.
