Tropical Depression Four-E continues to churn Sunday in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Forecasters expect the system to become a tropical storm today.
Forecasters said Sunday morning the system, located about 450 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, has maximum sustained winds around 35 mph. It is moving west-northwest around 14 mph.
Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, but the large size and slow evolution of the inner core of the depression suggests that only gradual intensification is likely, according to forecasters. Beyond that time, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and move into a somewhat drier and more stable air mass, which should bring a halt to any further strengthening.
Forecasters are also keeping watch on an area of showers and thunderstorms that have become more concentrated and better organized in association with a weak low pressure area a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, according to the center. The proximity of this disturbance to Tropical Depression Four-E could limit development during the next day or two while it moves slowly west-northwest. However, forecasters cautioned that environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for slow development after that time.
Forecasters gave the system a 30 percent of forming into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. They gave it a 50 percent change of forming into a tropical cyclone during the next five days.
Meanwhile, tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the Central North Pacific Basin through Tuesday morning, according to forecasters at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Oahu. The Central North Pacific Basin is located between 140 degrees west longitude and the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center officials predicted four to seven tropical cyclones this year in the Central North Pacific Basin. Overall, they give this season an 80 percent chance for a normal to above average number of tropical storms to form.
The Central Pacific hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.