The June 27 lava flow could reach Pahoa Village Road in 16 to 18 days, according to Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
That’s based on one of several potential directions the flow could take and the average flow rate of 1,300 feet per day since Saturday, said Janet Babb, HVO geologist.
One path could take the lava to the area where the road and Highway 130 meet on the Hilo side, Babb said, which is why HVO’s latest update posted Monday evening references the village’s main road.
The flow could also move more toward the center of Pahoa or more to the west and avoid it all together, Babb said.
“Tomorrow could be a different story,” she said. “That’s the nature of the lava flow.”
The flow is about 0.7 miles from Kaohe Homesteads, and may pass through the north part of the neighborhood.
“The flow direction has largely been to the north, and there are no areas imminently threatened,” she said. “In the next few days, we’ll determine which way the flow will go, but that’s really dependent upon the topography encountered at this point. It may be approaching another crack, but it’s difficult to see because of heavy vegetation.”
At the beginning of the weekend, the tip of the flow, which had been running along a crack and steadily moving eastward toward Pahoa and neighboring communities, appeared to branch off northward into several different fingers of lava on the surface.
Over the last couple days, the movement of the flow has largely been in a northerly direction, according to Hawaii County Civil Defense.
“It’s mostly moving parallel to Kaohe Homesteads at the moment,” Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said Monday afternoon.
Oliveira added that at noon Monday, a privately contracted security firm had begun maintaining security at the entrance to the Kaohe Homesteads neighborhood, located at the intersection of Kaohe Homestead and Cemetery roads. The move is an effort to provide the residents of the neighborhood, which is less than a mile from the lava flow, with security as they prepare for a possible evacuation.
Drivers looking to enter the neighborhood are being asked their names to be compared with a list of residents of the 30-or-so homes in the rural community. Security officers are also noting the license plates of friends or family members seeking entry.
On Friday, it appeared as though early efforts to relocate livestock and other animals were winding down, with cattle, horses and pigs being moved to undisclosed locations in advance of a possible evacuation.
The June 27 flow, named for the date it emerged from Puu Oo, has been moving in an unpredictable fashion for the past several weeks, with scientists at HVO saying that its movement through a number of cracks in the uneven terrain make estimating speed and direction highly difficult.
For more information, visit http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/activity/kilaueastatus.php.
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune- herald.com. Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune- herald.com.