With the farthest point of the June 27 lava flow stalled, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory geologists say they are suspending estimates for when the flow could reach Pahoa and Highway 130.
The flow front has been slowing for about two weeks and has seen little, if any, movement this week, though lava continues to spread out from breakouts farther upslope.
One breakout, a few hundred yards from the front, advanced another 70 yards as of Thursday morning, according to HVO and Hawaii County Civil Defense.
The flow rate has slowed considerably since Sept. 10 when it was advancing 433 yards per day.
HVO scientists have identified two potential factors: deflation at Kilauea’s summit or the lava tube system could be reaching its limits for insulating and moving lava through it.
“While the evidence favors a decrease in eruptive output as the cause of the current slow-down, careful study is still needed,” HVO says in its weekly Volcano Watch column.
The flow has reached 10.2 miles from Puu Oo, and is now considered the longest flow the vent has produced in its ongoing, 31-year eruption. For most of the eruption, flows ventured into the ocean to the south, thereby capping their length.
In response to interest in the flow, the state Department of Land and Natural Resources has closed all of its unencumbered state lands in the flow’s vicinity.
That includes the Wao Kele O Puna forest reserve and Kahaualea Natural Area Reserve.
HVO scientists have adjusted projections for when the flow could reach Pahoa several times as the flow rate changes.
Janet Babb, HVO spokeswoman, said no more forecasts will be provided for now since the flow remains stalled at its farthest point, about 2 miles from Pahoa.
The last forecast from a week ago estimated the flow could take 18 days from Sept. 19 to reach Pahoa Village Road. The flow has continued to slow since.
The breakout is advancing to the northeast along the flow’s edge.
Babb said “time will tell” whether that breakout becomes the new flow front.
A Wednesday overflight noted that lava continued to move through the flow’s tube system, though at a lower volume than last week, according to HVO.
“The important take home message is the flow is still active,” Babb said.
“This is within the range of normal for pahoehoe flows.”
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.