HONOLULU — A month ago in this space, we spoke of the University of Hawaii’s football game vs. Northern Iowa as a “must-win” situation.
The Rainbow Warriors took care of business that night, winning 24-17. But they have lost back-to-back road games since then, which puts them in another “must-win” situation this Saturday at home against Wyoming.
It is UH’s Mountain West Conference opener, the first of eight remaining games this season. So there will be other opportunities, for sure. And mathematically, a loss here still would not eliminate the Rainbow Warriors (1-4) from bowl consideration.
But for the immediate future, Saturday’s game against the Cowboys (3-2) is crucial on several fronts:
• For one, it is the first time all season Hawaii is favored against a Football Bowl Subdivision (NCAA Division I-A) program. Twenty-nine games into head coach Norm Chow’s tenure, the Rainbow Warriors have only beaten two FBS teams, UNLV (in 2012) and Army (2013).
With rumblings about UH possibly moving down to the Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AA), it is imperative the Rainbow Warriors at least win against the rare FBS teams they are actually favored to defeat.
• Morale-wise, a victory over Wyoming would be huge, and not just for the reason stated above. Of last year’s 11 losses, one of the most disgusting and painful was a 59-56 overtime heartbreaker at Laramie, Wyo., on Nov. 23.
Hawaii led, 48-42, early in the fourth quarter of that game, only to later fall behind 56-48 before tying it at 56-56 with 1:18 remaining.
But in overtime, the Rainbow Warriors rushed Joey Iosefa four straight times after gaining first-and-10 from the 13, and he was stopped for a loss on fourth-and-1. That allowed the Cowboys — who had torched UH for a ridiculous 793 yards — to kick a 36-yard field goal for the victory.
The hair-pulling loss completed an 0-8 conference season for Hawaii.
Ironically, the Rainbow Warriors’ strength this season has been their defense, so this is an opportunity to show how much difference a year can make.
• The nonconference season has been disappointing, especially on offense, but absolutely none of that matters in the Mountain West. As Chow said, “We’re 0-0” in conference play, so this is a chance to wash away the past, and start fresh. A 1-0 league record would change the entire season outlook.
• By the same token, a loss could have devastating effects. It would extend the mounting frustration among players, coaches and fans, and not offer anyone much hope being 1-5 heading to a tough road trip at San Diego State the week after.
Instead of being a fresh start, it would serve to represent a continuation of doubt that has lingered over the past three seasons, and only reignite the growing calls for Chow to be fired.
Of course, a victory and fresh start do not happen automatically, despite being favored.
UH still has much work to do on offense this week. We saw bits and pieces of improvement in last Saturday’s 28-14 loss at Rice, but — again — not enough.
Quarterback Ikaika Woolsey did throw two touchdown passes (double his previous season total), but completed just 12 of 27 passes overall and was intercepted once.
As usual, there were at least two dropped passes, and a couple other incompletions thrown simply to avoid a sack.
But again, there also were several misfires, passes thrown into coverage or not close enough to give the receiver a chance.
The offensive line underperformed, allowing seven sacks and opening only enough holes for running back Steven Lakalaka to gain 74 yards on 22 carries (3.4 yards per carry). A couple of those sacks could have been avoided if Woolsey got rid of the ball quicker, but the line still must improve if the rest of the offense is to make progress.
Hawaii is next-to-last in the nation in pass completion percentage, at 43.8 percent, and pass efficiency (84.6), so obviously that is the offense’s biggest problem. And it’s not just making more plays, but when: The Rainbow Warriors are 118th FBS teams) on third-down conversions, with a success rate of only 30 percent.
As has been the case all season, UH needs more diversity in its offense. Last Saturday was somewhat of an improvement, as Woolsey finally was able to take advantage of his athleticism to gain 53 yards rushing. But obviously, it wasn’t enough. The tight end was a non-factor as a receiving option, and speedster Keelan Ewaliko did not get any touches except for two nice kick returns.
That needs to change.
As much as people are blaming Woolsey for the sluggish offense, more needs to also be expected from wideout Marcus Kemp, who had a disappointing game at Rice (three catches, 18 yards). Granted, Kemp is a true sophomore who may not have been a projected starter last spring, but he is a scholarship recruit and is not without tools. He’s 6 feet, 4 inches tall, and while he may not have breakaway sprinter’s speed, he was a state high jump champion and long jump runner-up in Utah.
There should be a way for him to be a reliable target for Woolsey, for more than three catches and 18 yards.
But the “blame” for the woeful offense really should be spread among all 11 positions, plus the coaching staff. Each of them needs to challenge himself to do better this week, because 14 points probably won’t be enough against Wyoming.
More than likely, they will need at least 21 points, maybe 24 or even 27.
And the operative word is need.
At stake is the Paniolo Trophy, awarded to this year’s winner between these old Western Athletic Conference rivals.
But beyond that beautiful bronze sculpture, the Rainbow Warriors have much more to gain — or lose — in the big picture.
It is a “must-win” game for UH, and should be treated as such.