The advance of the June 27 lava flow appears to be slowing down yet again.
A Thursday morning overflight revealed the front of the flow had advanced 65 yards since Wednesday, just about halving the average flow rate observed during the previous week, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Acting Scientist-in-Charge Steve Brantley told reporters during an afternoon briefing.
“It does appear the flow front is slowing,” he said. “We need to keep tracking it in the coming days to weeks.”
On Wednesday, HVO scientists estimated the flow, at a rate of about 131 yards per day, could reach Apaa Road within 14 days. At its current rate, however, that estimate could double. And while the front’s arrival had been estimated to take a month, that also could double.
Ultimately, however, any such estimates are wholly reliant upon the day-to-day changes observed in the flow activity, Brantley said.
“We’re in another episode of change, so it’s not really feasible to give any better estimate than that,” he said. “The important point is that because the lava flow advancement rate is changing week by week and day by day, it’s important for everyone to keep abreast of what the advance rate is day by day.”
Meanwhile, Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira reported the front has now pushed through the forest line, moving into an area with lighter vegetation. Consisting mostly of uluhe ferns, the area could pose a fire risk in the future because of the vegetation’s tendency to create a canopy that “provides good protection from the rain,” he said.
“You can have dry material underneath, and even while it’s green, it burns,” he said.
Even so, Pahoa received a “pretty good dousing with rain” Wednesday, which will likely protect the area from fires in the near future.
“We’re hopeful the moisture in the fields is enough that we don’t have any brush fires, but we’ll be keeping an eye on it,” Oliveira said.
The area sits on a privately owned parcel of land that has road access, and fire department personnel will be able to respond should another brush fire ignite, he added.
Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune-herald.com.