WASHINGTON — A free steak dinner for everyone who predicted the Senate races in Kansas and South Dakota would be in doubt three weeks from Election Day.
Or that the most-discussed campaign TV ad would show a smiling woman talking about castrating hogs.
Oh? No takers?
When the run toward the 2014 election began, several things were certain:
—Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, was in deep trouble.
—Republicans easily would hold Senate seats in states that President Barack Obama lost badly.
—Domestic issues, and especially the president’s health care law, would rise above all others.
All that, and more, has changed.
Kasich’s re-election now seems so assured that fans talk of his making a second run for president. (It helped that his Democratic opponent was found in a dark parking lot with a woman who’s not his wife.)
In the Senate, Republicans still seem on track to pick up the six seats they need to take control. They recruited good candidates and focused on several states Obama lost. Democratic retirements made West Virginia and South Dakota slam dunks.
Democrats facing re-election offered big targets in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska and North Carolina.
But with Senate control so tantalizingly close, Republicans find themselves investing time, staff and money into protecting a three-term senator in Kansas — one of the most conservative states.
“Anyone who predicted that last year is either psychic or psychotic,” said Matt Bennett, a veteran of Democratic campaigns.
Even if GOP Sen. Pat Roberts survives the challenge from independent Greg Orman, Republicans also must lock down South Dakota, a once-unthinkable concern.
Democrats are pouring $1 million into TV ads attacking Republican Mike Rounds, a former governor. Driving the uncertainty is third-party candidate Larry Pressler, who spent 18 years in the Senate as a Republican. Republicans answered quickly with $1 million worth of TV ad buys.
If Republicans lose either of those states, and fall one seat short of controlling the Senate, it will rank among the most crushing failures in recent political history. Especially with a 2016 map that strongly favors Democrats.