Between 40 and 50 households could be evacuated as soon as Tuesday after the June 27 lava flow crossed Apa’a Street/Cemetery Road, threatening Pahoa-area residents.
The flow was moving at the relatively brisk pace of about 270 yards a day, according to Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientist Matt Patrick, and crossed the street at about 3:50 a.m Saturday morning. Since Friday, the flow front had moved an additional 300 yards.
“It (the flow front) is still heading in the northeast direction, and the flow front is 1 kilometer (.62 miles) in a straight distance from Pahoa Village Road,” he said. “… It’s still narrow, probably 50 meters (55 yards) to 70 meters (77 yards) wide.”
He added that the flow continues to follow relatively closely to HVO’s predicted lines of steepest descent, which show the flow crossing Pahoa Village Road a little bit west of the Pahoa Post Office. When that might happen, however, is up in the air.
“It’s been moving about 250 meters a day, but it’s not going to maintain that rate. It’s been very erratic in its advance rate,” Patrick said. “We’ll be watching in the coming days.”
Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said at about midday that an evacuation notice had been issued for residents downslope of the flow front, warning that an evacuation could be ordered within three to five days. As many as 40-50 households could be included in that initial evacuation order.
“We have some activities we’re undertaking, which had been planned since yesterday. We have personnel on the ground going door to door in the downslope area in the projected flow path,” he said. “We’re notifying residents in that area what the flow is doing as well as reminding them what to do. The key right now is watching the flow advancement rate and to give people time to take care of their evacuation needs.
“In our interactions with the public, we’ve seen they have been attending the community meetings, asking really good questions about the likelihood of the impact. I feel confident they’ve put together their evacuation plans that we’ve been preparing for but hoping wouldn’t have to happen. I feel confident when we do say an evacuation is coming in the next few days, they’ll be ready to do so.”
The two primary areas most likely to be affected by the advancing flow extend from the intersection of Apa’a Street and Pahoa Village Road down to the area where Post Office Road intersects with Pahoa Village Road on the mauka side of the street, he said.
Oliveira said that there had been some concern that once the lava reached the road, burning asphalt could produce noxious fumes and smoke, but so far wind patterns had kept the smoke hovering above the road, with little movement toward populated areas.
“It didn’t require any advisory or evacuation. … At this point there are no health concerns and safety risks,” he said.
Going forward, Civil Defense plans to increase the number of overflights of the lava to keep residents up to date on the latest movements of the flow. Previously, the overflights were done each morning, but they will likely go up to three a day, he said.
Meanwhile, Hawaii Electric Light Company was remaining “cautiously optimistic” after the first field test of its plan to protect utility poles yielded encouraging results in the early morning hours on Saturday.
At about 1 a.m., one of the company’s four poles near the Pahoa Transfer Station was approached by lava and was completely surrounded by 3 a.m., but a concrete wall around the pole, surrounded by a pile of cinder, appeared to be protecting the wooden pole from the intense heat of the flow, said HELCO spokeswoman Rhea Lee.
“We are encouraged by the initial result of the pole protection design, but the long term results are still not determined,” she said. “We will continue to closely monitor the flow and its effect on our infrastructure. As the lava flow progresses, we expect the lava will rise and inflate — this is the second test of our experimental design.”
Lee added that, should the protections in place not succeed in protecting the affected poles carrying the transmission line, a second, redundant transmission line further mauka will be able to maintain service.
“The other transmission line is much further down, closer to Hawaiian Beaches, should we no longer be able to use this transmission line. … We’re not expecting customer impacts at this time,” she said.
Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune-herald.com.