U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists and Hawaii County Civil Defense officials next week will likely be able to tell whether lava from the June 27 flow will take a path directly toward the intersection of Pahoa Village Road and Highway 130.
“(The flow) will probably slowly advance into this area where the flow lines converge and then slowly advance out of it, so, I anticipate it will be next week before we know which path it will take,” Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Geophysicist Mike Poland said Thursday.
Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said as of Thursday the flow front was about 400 meters — or about 1,200 feet — from the area where the two paths near each other.
Once the flow reaches that area, lava could take one or both paths, Poland said. One of the paths would take the lava toward the intersection, which is where Malama Market is located. The other path would take the lava toward Ainaloa, however, that path does veer east before reaching the area.
The leading edge of the June 27 lava flow advanced about 145 yards — or about 435 feet — between Thursday and Friday, according to a statement released at 8 a.m. Friday. The flow front was about 2.4 miles upslope of the Highway 130-Pahoa Village Road intersection. There is currently no immediate threat to communities in the area.
The flow’s advancement during the past 24 hours was a bit slower than the 350 to 400 yards the flow had been moving each day earlier this week.
Poland said that scientists had anticipated the slowdown in the lava flow because the area’s topography levels out and there was a reduction in the amount of lava that was being supplied to the flow as Kilauea Volcano entered the deflation period of a deflation-inflation cycle on Saturday that continued through Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, the volcano began to inflate before deflating early Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, the volcano was again inflating before it showed signs of deflation. The volcano had entered an inflation period as of Thursday morning.
“We are on an inflation limb right now and based on past experience we expect that to be associated with a very sight increase in the amount of lava that would be coming out of Puu Oo,” Poland explained.
Scientists and Civil Defense are also monitoring a breakout that is currently located less than a half-mile above the flow front. Oliveira said that the breakout was not advancing significantly on Thursday.
As of 11:30 a.m. Thursday, there was no threat of brush fire thanks to recent rains in the area. Smoke conditions were reported as moderate with smoke from burning vegetation being blown in a southeast direction toward the Kaohe Homesteads, Leilani, and Nanawale areas. Smoke conditions may increase in some areas and residents that may be sensitive or have respiratory problems are advised to take precautions and to remain indoors.