The U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Wednesday downgraded its alert level for Kilauea Volcano from a warning to a watch.
The observatory said the decision to lower the alert level from “warning” to “watch” was made because the lava flow nearest to the town of Pahoa has remained inactive in recent weeks. Further, officials said, it’s unlikely that the lava tube in the lower reaches of the flow could be reoccupied.
Lava activity on Wednesday was limited to four breakouts located in the vicinity of Kilauea’s Puu Oo vent. Lava from the breakouts was moving slowly atop earlier flows and along the margin of the June 27 and Kahaualea flows fields.
“Based on the rate and trajectory of these active flows, we anticipate that it will be at least months before lava could reach within 1 mile or 1 week of homes or infrastructure,” the observatory’s scientists said.
The ultimate trajectory and path of the lava flow will depend on how lava activity evolves in these areas, HVO said. Should breakouts along the northern margin of the June 27 flow field become dominant, the resulting lava flow will likely follow steepest lines of descent that approach the Hawaiian Acres and Ainaloa subdivisions. Should the breakout heading toward the south margin of the June 27 flow field become dominant, the resulting flow will likely parallel the East Rift Zone and approach the Pahoa area.
“At this time, reoccupation of the lava tube that fed lava flows toward the Pahoa Marketplace area is unlikely,” HVO said. “Should this occur, however, delivery of lava farther downslope to the currently inactive extent of the June 27th lava flow field could happen more quickly, perhaps within weeks.”
HVO said it will continue to monitor the flow in coordination with Hawaii County Civil Defense.