Ohio State is the defending national college football champion. The Buckeyes return 15 starters and have such depth at quarterback that the player expected to lead the team last season has been converted to a receiver.
Understandably, the team is No. 1 in the preseason Associated Press poll announced Sunday. Indeed, it is the first unanimous preseason No. 1 in the poll’s history.
But recent history shows that preseason No. 1s have not cruised to championships. None since USC in 2004 has finished the season in the top spot.
In the 10 years since, preseason No. 1s have been excellent teams, posting a combined 109-23 record. But only half finished in the top five. Their record in bowl games was just 5-5, and two of the wins were in Capital One Bowls.
The next two preseason No. 1s after USC’s 2004 team were the two best. USC in 2005 and Ohio State in 2006 made it all the way to the national championship game before losing. The 2007 USC squad won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 3. But in the years since, No. 1s have been mostly disappointing.
By far the worst of the preseason No. 1s was USC in 2012. Returning from a two-year postseason ban, the Trojans started 6-1 with a road loss to a solid Stanford team that was not an embarrassment. But they finished 1-5, including a poor loss to unranked Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl. USC was the first team to start the season No. 1 and end it unranked since Mississippi in 1964.
Last year’s preseason No. 1, Florida State, was undefeated in the regular season, although it was less than impressive in many of its games, winning seven of them by single digits. It also beat only one top 10 team. The committee seeding the inaugural college football playoffs was not impressed, ranking the Seminoles third, although they were the only undefeated team in the playoff. Sure enough, Florida State was outmatched in its semifinal, losing, 59-20, to Oregon.
As a unanimous No. 1, Ohio State is more well thought of than any of the preseason No. 1s that have come before it. But many others have been close to unanimous: Alabama in 2013 and Florida in 2009 got 58 of 60 votes.
Even if Ohio State does fall short, the eventual national champion is probably not too far away in the preseason poll. Over the past 10 years, the national champion has started out ranked No. 2 four times and somewhere in the top 10 eight times. The unlikeliest titlist, Auburn in 2010, started the season at No. 22.