Hurricane Olaf is forecast to continue weakening as it heads northwest well east of the Big Island.
Located 850 miles southeast of Kailua-Kona, Olaf was circulating 120 mph winds and heading northwest at 9 mph as of 5 p.m. Wednesday, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said. Tropical storm-force winds extended 160 miles and hurricane-force winds 35 miles from the storm’s center.
Olaf, which began making a forecast turn to the north Wednesday morning, is expected to continue heading northwest before turning toward the north and becoming embedded this weekend within mid-latitude westerlies that will steer the storm northeast and farther away from the state, forecasters said.
Slow, but steady, weakening is expected during this time as the former Category 4 hurricane moves over cooler water in the coming days, forecasters said. Southwesterly wind shear is forecast to pick up Thursday afternoon, and the storm should enter a drier environment, prompting additional weakening.
By Friday evening, weather models have the hurricane weakened to a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph about 530 miles east-southeast of Hilo. Olaf should weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, at which time it will be located about 1,000 miles north-northeast of Hilo.
Though Olaf is making the forecast turn away from the islands, large swells generated by the storm will impact east-facing shores during the next couple of days. A high surf warning is in effect for northern, eastern and southern coasts through 6 p.m. Saturday. Wave heights of 12 to 18 feet are forecast.
Elsewhere in the Central Pacific, which is where Hawaii is located, no tropical cyclones were expected to develop through Friday evening.
Closer to North America, Tropical Storm Patricia, which formed late Tuesday, was located about 240 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said at 5 p.m. Wednesday. Patricia was moving west-northwest at 14 mph and featured maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extended 115 miles from the storm’s center.
Continued strengthening is forecast, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane early Thursday. The storm could make landfall sometime Friday or Saturday. Rapid weakening is then forecast as the storm moves inland.
A hurricane warning has been posted for areas of the Mexico coast, from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo; a hurricane watch is in effect for areas east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. A tropical storm warning is in effect for areas east Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas while a watch has been posted for areas east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana.
Patricia could drench the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero with up to a foot of rainfall through Saturday, forecasters said, cautioning of the threat of flash floods and mudslides.
The National Hurricane Center Wednesday was also keeping tabs on an area of low pressure expected to develop several hundred miles off the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later this week. It has just a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression within five days.
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