The NFL Pro Bowl teams were announced Tuesday, naming the top players as determined by the votes of fans, players and coaches. And, not surprisingly, players on the best teams tended to fare better than players on weaker teams, particularly at positions where few individual stats are recorded.
Two “special teamers” are selected, which are intended to identify the best special-teams players excluding punters, place-kickers and return specialists. The two selections happen to play for the New England Patriots (Matthew Slater) and the Arizona Cardinals (Justin Bethel), two teams that possess two of the three best records in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay’ Buccaneers’ Bobby Rainey leads all players in special-teams fumble recoveries (with four) while Cleveland’s Johnson Bademosi leads all players with 16 special-teams tackles. But it’s easier to argue that a special teamer on a good team is more valuable than a special-teams player on a bad one.
The 86 Pro Bowl players play on teams that have an average winning percentage of 0.640. That is based on a 0.612 average winning percentage for offensive players, 0.685 for defensive players, and 0.580 for special teams.
Since defensive players have fewer stats than offensive players, and defensive stars are more likely to accumulate the few stats that they can achieve (i.e., sacks and interceptions) when playing with a lead, it’s not surprising that voters chose defensive players on better teams.
At a position like running back, it’s easier for a player to stand out even on a losing team: The Buffalo Bills’ LeSean McCoy, the St. Louis Rams’ Todd Gurley and Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin were three of the six running backs named to the Pro Bowl, and all three play on teams with 6-8 records entering the weekend. A fourth, Devonta Freeman, plays for the 7-7 Atlanta Falcons.
Perhaps more surprising is that at offensive tackle the players’ teams have an average winning percentage of 0.417; the only position with a worse average winning percentage was at punter.
Part of this is because offensive tackles cannot make an offense: An elite left tackle is not going to help a team win games if the quarterback or receivers are below average. In some ways, a top-notch offensive lineman is only as valuable as the players he is protecting.
Another reason, though, is that offensive tackles are routinely selected year after year based on reputation: The six offensive tackles selected to the Pro Bowl were the Cleveland Browns’ Joe Thomas (nine Pro Bowls), the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jason Peters (eight), the San Francisco 49ers’ Joe Staley (who made his fifth straight Pro Bowl), the Washington Redskins’ Trent Williams (fourth straight Pro Bowl), the Dallas Cowboys’ Tyron Smith (third straight Pro Bowl) and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Andrew Whitworth (second career Pro Bowl, but a second-team All-Pro selection in 2014).
The 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys are having down years, but that did not stop Staley, Peters, or Smith from receiving their customary Pro Bowl nod. As for Thomas? He has made the Pro Bowl in each of his nine seasons in the league, but the Browns have never made the playoffs during his career.
At quarterback, it’s no surprise that the six selections play on teams with at least nine wins: It’s never quite clear which way the causation arrow runs (are they great quarterbacks because their teams win, or do their teams win because they are great quarterbacks?), but no position is judged by wins and losses quite like quarterback. The only offensive position with a higher average winning percentage than quarterback was at tight end. There, the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski and the Carolina Panthers’ Greg Olsen were obvious choices, but players like Delanie Walker (76 receptions, 935 yards, six touchdowns for the Tennessee Titans) and Gary Barnidge (68 receptions, 930 yards, nine touchdowns for the Browns) were passed over for tight ends on winning teams: the Bengals’ Tyler Eifert (48/564/12) and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Travis Kelce (65/822/4).