Super Bowl 50 is barely in the books, but it certainly is not too soon to start thinking about LI.
If oddsmakers are to be believed, the 2016 season may end where so many others have: with the New England Patriots at or near the top of the heap.
As of Wednesday, the Patriots were favorites to win next year’s Super Bowl with most bookmakers.
Close behind are the Carolina Panthers and the Seattle Seahawks; depending on where you might choose to bet, any of the three might be the favorite at odds from 7-1 to 8-1.
That accounts for three of the four teams that played in the past two Super Bowls. But where are the defending champion Denver Broncos?
Uncertainty about Peyton Manning’s future, as well as some skepticism about the team’s intrinsic talent — despite going 12-4, Denver outscored opponents by only 59 points, fewer than the New York Jets did — has led gamblers to leave the Broncos out of the top teams. Instead, they are in a cluster in the second tier, along with playoff teams like the Green Bay Packers, the Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals at between 10-1 and 16-1.
Two teams that are expected to show improvement are the Dallas Cowboys and the Baltimore Ravens. Dallas was an atrocious 4-12, but much of the blame for that is pinned on the injury that limited Tony Romo to four games. With Romo back, Dallas is 25-1 or less to win the championship, around the same price as the Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs, who had 11 wins each.
Another team to watch is the Ravens. Their terrible 5-11 season was their first under .500 since 2007; the year after that, they made the conference championship. With Elvis Dumervil holding down the defense and the sixth overall pick in the draft, the cupboard will not be bare. Bookmakers expect a bounce back, listing the Ravens at about 33-1 to win the Super Bowl, better than quite a few .500 and winning teams.
The Indianapolis Colts were one of the favorites for this year’s Super Bowl, but with injuries to Andrew Luck, they ended up playing 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley at quarterback. As a result they were 8-8. With Luck back, they could well improve, and are listed around 25-1.
The only team with a winning record that is not fancied at all for a Super Bowl run is the Redskins. Washington was 9-7 in the poor NFC East and did not look very good in the playoffs against the Packers. The Redskins’ chances at a title next season are comparable to mediocre teams like the Miami Dolphins and the San Diego Chargers, at 50-1 or more.
The least likely winner of the Super Bowl is quite clear. Although the Tennessee Titans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers are all long shots, no victor would be more surprising that the Cleveland Browns. A league-worst 3-13 record and a minus-154 point differential provide little hope for the future, and the off-the-field woes of Johnny Manziel, who is now likely to be released, cast a cloud over an already gloomy season. If you disagree, perhaps with visions of Cal’s Jared Goff leading Cleveland to the championship, odds of 150-1 to 200-1 are readily available to you.
Before you take the Super Bowl LI odds as gospel, though, remember that the early favorites last season were the Packers, the Colts and the Seahawks. Eventual champion Denver was only about the fifth choice, and the Super Bowl runner-up, Carolina, which finished 15-1, was expected to be around .500.