HILO — More than two weeks after lava began pouring out of new breakouts on Kilauea’s Puu Oo vent, Pele appears to be picking her path.
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory geologist Tim Orr said Thursday that only the breakout on the vent’s east flank was visibly active, suggesting that lava will be funneled toward the coastline.
That breakout, along with another on the northeast flank, started May 24 and signaled another shift in the ongoing 33-year-old eruption.
With no visible activity at the other flow fields, including at the nearly 2-year-old June 27 flow, Orr said it is likely activity on the east flank will continue to dominate, at least in the short term.
But scientists weren’t ready to call the other flows pau just yet.
“We’ll be making observations,” he said. “If the flow field out there remains inactive for the next several days, it becomes more comfortable saying it’s shut down.”
As of Thursday, the 1.7-mile-long flow on the east flank was about 4.6 miles from the coastline as the crow flies and about halfway to the top of Pulama pali.
The flow, starting near the site of the 2011 Peace Day flow, would essentially be repaving areas already covered by the eruption in the past three decades.
That includes the former Royal Gardens subdivision which became the first populated area to be inundated.
“The path likely will take it back down roughly through Royal Gardens, where the subdivision was,” Orr said.
“Assuming it keeps going, it likely will reach the ocean eventually.”
Orr said that could be “months or weeks away.”
If the flow continues to head to the coast, it could once again be visible at night from a safe distance at Kalapana or Hawaii Volcanoes National Park viewpoints. Columns of steam caused by lava entering the ocean also could again be witnessed, making the eruption a popular tourist attraction once more.
Doug Arnott, owner of Arnott’s Lodge &Hiking Adventures, said that would be a big boost to East Hawaii’s economy.
“That would certainly enliven the scene,” he said.
Arnott said he would take 200 people a day from cruise ships visiting Hilo to see the flows a few years ago when lava was heading in the same direction.
“If it happens, we’ll build up for it,” he said.