The first time Democrats convened to nominate a Clinton for president was 1992, in New York, and it was an eventful affair. Jerry Brown refused to endorse his winning rival, Bill Clinton. Brown delegates put tape over their mouths to protest the feared silencing of their candidate, who eventually got to speak.
Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland touted the Democratic females running for the Senate in “the year of the woman.” Gov. Robert Casey of Pennsylvania was denied a chance to speak against abortion rights. Elizabeth Glaser, who had AIDS and had lost a daughter to the disease, brought the audience to tears when she said, “I am here because my son and I may not survive another four years of leaders who say they care — but do nothing.”
Keynote speaker Gov. Zell Miller of Georgia quipped, “Not all of us can be born rich, handsome and lucky, and that’s why we have a Democratic Party.” Former Rep. Barbara Jordan of Texas, however, soberly addressed the challenge facing the party after three consecutive presidential defeats: “The American electorate must be persuaded to trust us, the Democrats, to govern again.”
Trust is something Democrats can’t count on this year. A recent poll found that 69 percent of Americans are concerned about Hillary Clinton’s “record of being dishonest.” At the Republican convention in Cleveland, speakers charged her with lying about her emails, Benghazi and even being named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the first person to reach the top of Mount Everest (six years after she was born). “Lock her up!” was the recurring chant.
In their effort to sway voters, the Democrats massing in Philadelphia will be part of a much more controlled and predictable convention than the 1992 version — to say nothing of that raucous GOP gathering in Cleveland.
A party that nominated Bill Clinton in 1992 and is nominating his wife this year may seem like one that refuses to change. But the party has moved leftward in the past two decades, as the 2016 platform makes plain. Hillary Clinton is a very different candidate than her husband.
This convention is likely to fit her personality — deliberate and disciplined or, as critics would have it, calculating and uninspiring. Her rival, Bernie Sanders, has already endorsed her, though many of his followers have yet to fall in line. There will be speeches by President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, an immigration activist and several mothers of African-Americans killed by police or criminals.
It’s safe to assume that those watching will be told repeatedly that Hillary Clinton is an experienced, capable and empathetic leader — and that electing Donald Trump would be a catastrophic mistake. The challenge for those speaking is not finding things to criticize in him, but deciding which of his many rich shortcomings to highlight.
The New York tycoon has done so much to demonstrate his unfitness for the presidency that the Democrats should be coasting to an easy victory. But Clinton is a deeply flawed candidate whose self-control and lack of spontaneity have a way of casting a kind light on Trump’s unpredictability. Most polls have her leading, but not by much.
Clinton also may suffer from a serious, and nationwide, enthusiasm gap. In the 2016 primaries and caucuses, voter turnout in the Republican contests was up by 8 million voters from 2008, the most recent comparable year. Democrats had a falloff of 6 million voters.
While she and her party can exercise a great deal of discipline in presenting their case to voters, they can’t control events outside, this week or in the coming months. Terrorist incidents, economic setbacks, attacks on police, Russian or Chinese aggression — any number of events could have a major effect on voter feelings and choices. Speaking generally: Late-breaking disruptions tend to hurt the prospects of the party in power — the party playing defense.
Equally problematic is that those running the convention can’t undo all the impressions of Clinton that have shaped and hardened public perceptions of her. The Democrats of 1992 could have told her: Trust is an easy thing to lose and a hard thing to regain. Clinton and her party have their work cut out for them this week in Philadelphia.