KAILUA-KONA — Scientists say that La Nina conditions are favored to develop this fall and persist through the winter in the Central and western portions of the Eastern Pacific basins.
La Nina conditions feature cooler waters and historically have produced below-normal hurricane seasons for Hawaii compared to El Nino seasons, which see warmer waters and reduced wind shear that fuels convection and storms. Historically, during La Nina events, rainfall has been greater than normal for Hawaii.
Scientists say there is a 70 percent chance that La Nina will develop this fall, and a 55-percent chance that it will persist through the winter into 2017.
Since mid-April, near-to-below average sea surface temperatures have expanded westward to the International Dateline, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported this week. Since September and into early October, negative sea surface temperatures have developed in the Central and Central Eastern Pacific basins with those numbers reported to be about 1 degree Celsius below normal temperatures for this time of the year.
Temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific have been variable, according to NOAA.
El Nino conditions had persisted in the basins from fall 2015 through this spring. Neutral conditions became evident starting in May and June.