WASHINGTON — When Puerto Ricans vote Sunday on the political future for the U.S. territory, Gov. Ricardo Rossello is confident most will choose statehood.
“It’s unfortunate U.S. citizens here don’t have the same power,” he said. “We need to take action.”
But in some ways, the timing couldn’t be worse. With a political divide on the island, a deepening economic crisis and — critically — a lack of congressional support to become the 51st American state, experts say the vote seems unlikely to result in any real change.
“Now is the worst time and the worst manner to deal with the issue,” said Federico de Jesus, a Puerto Rico native and the former deputy director of the Governor of Puerto Rico’s Washington, D.C., office, under former Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla, a member of the Popular Democratic Party who opposes statehood. “All parties agree that the current system needs to be modified, but this is definitely the wrong course of action.”
This will be the island’s fifth referendum asking Puerto Ricans to choose statehood, independence or keep some version of the current status as a commonwealth. Opposition groups who don’t believe in statehood and felt unrepresented on the ballot — which originally included only statehood and independence/free association — are boycotting the vote, and experts say a statehood verdict doesn’t necessarily represent what the population wants.
Rossello said a statehood vote would be legitimate, adding that anyone who doesn’t vote in the upcoming plebiscite is “mostly driven by partisan politics.”
“The plebiscite has to be for a future solution to the status issue, which implied that the current status was not a solution,” he said. “This goes to the roots of what it means to be American, what it means to be part of a nation that shares the same democratic values, human rights, freedom … and all of those components are being severely hampered.”
Independence would give Puerto Ricans complete freedom as a nation, and free association would provide the territory with independence while establishing a mutual agreement with the United States that is defined by a compact.
“To expect other than a vote for statehood is unrealistic,” said Edwin Melendez, director of the Center for Puerto Rican Studies at the City University of New York’s Hunter College.
But he warned: “The result is not legitimate (because) you have one faction of the political process.”
And that perception is likely to influence Congress as well, said Anthony Suarez, president of the Puerto Rican Bar Association of Florida and whose parents are from Puerto Rico.
For statehood to win approval, the House and Senate must both vote to approve it, and the president must sign off on it. The last states to be added were Hawaii and Alaska in 1959.
With so many voters expected to stay home from the polls, the result won’t “reflect the will of the people,” making Congress unlikely to consider accepting Puerto Rico as a state, Suarez added.
“If they ignore the will of the people, they’re ignoring the will of American citizens, and they’re ignoring a democratic process, which becomes a very problematic assertion,” Rossello said. “You’re keeping the will of the people of Puerto Rico, who are American citizens, somewhat in the shadows.”
Puerto Ricans themselves haven’t been united on what they want, but without a majority of voters saying yes to statehood, Congress won’t even consider the idea, noted Amilcar Barreto, an associate professor of political science, international affairs and public policy at Northeastern University.
“For the past half-century, preferences for the three status options have essentially been locked,” Barreto said. “The statehood movement is frustrated. … They can’t seem to get that majority because the electorate is divided.”