The division races offered little suspense this season. Most of the winners are repeat champions, and the Houston Astros, who missed the playoffs last fall, ran away with the American League West.
The awards chase has held more intrigue, though, because strong candidates abound. In close races, the voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America invariably become part of the story, which is why The New York Times does not allow its writers to vote. But we still have opinions on the awards — which are announced in November — and here they are.
AL MVP
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
They are such opposites that even their initials are reversed. Aaron Judge is a 6-foot-7, power-hitting right fielder from California. Jose Altuve is a 5-foot-6, contact-hitting second baseman from Venezuela. Judge plays for the Yankees, who have 27 World Series titles. Altuve plays for the Houston Astros, who have none. Judge endured a prolonged slump in the second half. Altuve was a model of consistency.
Judge and Altuve have little in common besides their fashion sense — both show a lot of sock — and this: They will occupy the top two spots on most voters’ MVP ballots. The question is who should be first.
Altuve has gained a big edge on Judge in batting average and stolen bases while playing a more critical defensive position. He also has more wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference, but Judge is close enough to make that irrelevant; the metric is useful, but only as a guideline.
Altuve’s best case is his dependability. While his performance spiked in July — when he hit a superhuman .485 — his on-base plus slugging percentage has been above .850 in every calendar month.
“You’re splitting hairs here with all the great players around the league, but our guy has been the best and the most consistent,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. “He’s been remarkable on one of the best teams in baseball. He’s been a standout month by month by month, the true definition, from start to finish, of one of the best players in the game. The different impact that he has offensively, defensively, base running — there’s not a part of the game that hasn’t been really good.”
Yet for all of Altuve’s skills, Judge has made even more of an impact. Only about half of Judge’s plate appearances have resulted in a fair batted ball. But he draws so many walks — and drives himself in so often with home runs — that he leads the league in runs scored. He trails only the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout in on-base and slugging percentage, and has well over 100 runs batted in.
Trout, a two-time winner, can make a compelling case. He missed significant time to injury but still has about as many plate appearances as George Brett in his MVP season of 1980, and more than Willie Stargell in 1979, when he shared the NL honor with Keith Hernandez.
In those cases, though, Brett won for challenging the magical .400 batting average (he finished at .390), and Stargell largely for his leadership. Trout has simply been Trout: the best player in baseball, just a bit short in volume this season.
Judge’s six-week slump after the All-Star break could cost him the award, and Altuve would be a fine choice, too. But Judge was the biggest force, the biggest story, and the most fitting embodiment of the power game that baseball has become.
Runners-up: 2) Jose Altuve, Astros; 3) Mike Trout, Angels; 4) Jose Ramirez, Indians; 5) Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox; 6) Francisco Lindor, Indians; 7) Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox; 8) Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners; 9) Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles; 10) George Springer, Astros.
NL MVP
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Many voters — and players — believe the MVP must come from a contender. Yet that view severely limits the field and diminishes the integrity of the competition for teams out of the race. Every game matters, whatever the standings, and besides, these are individual awards. The team award is a World Series ring.
As tempting as it is then to endorse Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, another first baseman, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, stands above the rest. Votto and Goldschmidt have both topped .300 in average, .400 in on-base percentage and .500 in slugging percentage — but Votto was higher in all three, while playing more games and reaching base about 50 more times. Goldschmidt runs better, but both rank among the best fielders at first.
Other strong candidates are everywhere. Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton leads in homers and slugging percentage, but he’s outside the NL top 10 in on-base percentage. Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon leads in total bases but has markedly lower numbers away from Coors Field.
Blackmon’s teammate Nolan Arenado has similar numbers at home and on the road, and has been dazzling on defense at third base. What a year for that position, by the way; the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant, the Washington Nationals’ Anthony Rendon and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Justin Turner have also stood out.
In such a crowded field, then, the essential question is simple: Who has been the best hitter? As long as he has also played capably on defense, he should get the award. Votto it is.
Runners-up: 2) Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks; 3) Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins; 4) Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies; 5) Charlie Blackmon, Rockies; 6) Kris Bryant, Cubs; 7) Anthony Rendon, Nationals; 8) Justin Turner, Dodgers; 9) Bryce Harper, Nationals; 10) Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves.
AL Cy Young
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Because of a back injury, Cleveland’s Corey Kluber did not pitch in the last 29 days of May. He had made six starts by then, including a shutout. But he also had three poor starts and a 5.06 ERA. After his return, Kluber had a 1.62 ERA in 22 starts, entering this weekend.
Boston’s Chris Sale stayed healthy all season and racked up 308 strikeouts, the most in the majors in 15 years. Yet even with fewer starts, and his uneven beginning, Kluber has more high-quality outings — at least seven innings, no more than three earned runs — than Sale. Kluber has met those standards 16 times, once more than Sale.
Sale leads the league in innings, but Kluber has averaged more innings per start (7.1 to Sale’s 6.7), while tossing five complete games to Sale’s one. Kluber has also been harder to hit, holding opponents to a .190 average to Sale’s .208, while leading the league in fewest walks per nine innings (1.6 to Sale’s 1.8). Kluber also has a significant edge in ERA — an AL-best 2.27 to Sale’s 2.90.
Both pitchers have been extraordinary, and this will be Sale’s fifth year in a row among the top five on the ballot, a testament to consistent dominance. But Kluber, who won this award in 2014, has again been the AL’s best pitcher.
Runners-up: 2) Chris Sale, Red Sox; 3) Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers/Astros; 4) Luis Severino, Yankees; 5) Carlos Carrasco, Indians.
NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Legacy should not matter in the voting, but it offers a compelling backdrop: Washington’s Max Scherzer is seeking his third Cy Young Award, and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw his fourth. Kershaw should win, but the margin is really close.
Both pitchers had a summer lull, Scherzer because of a neck problem and Kershaw because of a back injury. Scherzer worked just 15 innings in a 31-day span from July 28 to Aug. 27. Kershaw did not pitch from July 24 through the end of August. Both had averaged 6.6 innings per start heading into the weekend.
So who was better? Kershaw has more starts of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs: 16 to Scherzer’s 14. He also has a better ERA — 2.21, the best in the majors, to Scherzer’s 2.55. Scherzer has issued about one more walk per nine innings than Kershaw, who has allowed about one more hit per nine than Scherzer.
The pitchers are so close, they may deserve the same fate; perhaps we should just give the award to Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers’ overpowering closer. But there has to be some tiebreaker, so let’s consider those extra innings Scherzer has pitched.
Scherzer has 26 1/3 more innings than Kershaw — again, heading into the weekend — and has allowed 14 more earned runs. That comes to a 4.78 ERA. So imagine that the pitchers had the same stats through 171 innings, but Kershaw stopped and Scherzer continued — but was generally ineffective.
Kershaw gets the edge, but there is no wrong choice between the two. This much is certain: The two richest pitching contracts in NL history ($215 million for Kershaw, $210 million for Scherzer) have been wise investments this season.