HILO — It’s an emergency message no one wants to hear: “The U.S. Pacific Command has detected a missile threat to Hawaii. A missile may impact on land or sea within minutes. This is not a drill.”
But in the unlikely event that message comes across your radio, television or smartphone, you’d best be prepared. You’re about to embark upon the most frantic 15 minutes of your life.
That’s why state emergency management officials are making the rounds, visiting community groups, civic clubs and chambers of commerce with their simple message — be prepared.
Retired Gen. Vern Miyagi, administrator of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, along with Maj. Gen. Arthur Logan, who serves as adjutant general, the top leader of the Hawaii National Guard, director of the state Office of Homeland Security and director of the Emergency Management Agency, made their 27th such presentation Tuesday before the Hawaii Island Chamber of Commerce.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last month demonstrated a missile that, experts say, puts the continental U.S. mainland within range, according to a Newsweek article Tuesday. Meanwhile, Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump have engaged in public barbs and name-calling.
“He’s threatened Guam, he’s threatened Hawaii and now he’s threatened the United States,” Logan said.
It’s unlikely that Kim will unleash a nuclear missile that hits Hawaii, Miyagi said. As the head of a nation with no missile defense, Kim is aware that a strike against the United States would likely mean obliteration of his own country, he said.
“It is unlikely, but we cannot ignore it,” Miyagi said.
Nor should the public think a nuclear strike would be the end of the world.
“There’s going to be thousands and thousands and thousands of survivors,” Miyagi said. “We don’t just give up.”
Unlike during the Cold War, the state doesn’t plan to build fallout shelters and stock them with supplies. It’s up to each family to prepare in advance for their own safe place and stock up at least a 14-day supply of food, water, medications, personal hygiene items, radio, batteries, flashlight, first aid kit, dust mask, cash in small bills, whistles, blankets, matches and tarps.
What can happen after a nuclear strike, how the state is preparing and details of disaster planning can be found at https://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/files/2017/11/HI-EMA-PUBLIC-BMP-working-brief-NOV-2017.pdf
If the wailing attack warning signal sounds, the public has 15 minutes to seek shelter and stay put for at least 48 hours or until given the all-clear. The state’s slogan is, “Get inside, stay inside and stay tuned.”
Those on the road should park their cars and get into a building. Interior rooms are best, away from doors and windows.
The first 48 hours can be tough, separating families as children shelter at school, and family members shelter at separate jobs or other locations. There won’t be time to get everyone home.
Miyagi said it’s up to schools and other institutions to be prepared to care for people stranded at their locations. Some parents, he said, have started putting together “go-bags,” for their children, tucking in such comforting items as photos and letters to reassure the children they’ll be back.
Radiation should be sufficiently degraded after 48 hours for people to leave shelter. But, as in the case of natural disasters, recovery could be slow. The two-week stockpile can help keep a family alive until rescuers can arrive, roads can be cleared and utilities brought back online.
“We can’t protect everyone within the state,” Miyagi said. “Participate in your own rescue. Have a plan for your family and yourself.”
The likeliest target would be Honolulu, severely damaging or destroying Pearl Harbor, Hickam Air Force Base, Honolulu airport and shipping harbor. If Honolulu is attacked, the neighbor islands would unlikely feel the impacts, but could be called upon to help treat casualties and provide alternative seaports and airports.
The consequences of a 150 kiloton missile at 1,000 feet would include almost 18,000 fatalities and 50,000-120,000 trauma and burn casualties. Some 15-30 percent of survivors exposed to initial radiation or fallout would experience acute radiation syndrome.
After the effects of the blast and shock, thermal radiation, radiation and fallout comes the effects of electromagnetic pulse, which would wipe out radio, television, cell service and internet.
Widespread structural fires and building collapses, damage to hospitals and government buildings and loss of critical emergency services such as fire, police and EMS units, damage to roads and other critical infrastructure and loss of electrical and water utilities round out the grim list.
But the missile could miss its intended target and hit anywhere within or around the neighbor islands, officials said.
“He hasn’t demonstrated any capability as far as accurate targeting,” Miyagi said. “He could miss and hit something else.”