HILO — Much of the Big Island is under a high surf warning associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, while Erick has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it continues to move west of the islands.
As of 5 p.m. Saturday, the center of Flossie was about 620 miles east of Hilo. Flossie continued to weaken, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 90 miles from the center.
The storm was moving west at 13 mph.
Flossie is expected to become a tropical depression Sunday night and to pass north of the Big Island early Monday. The “cone of uncertainty,” however shows the possibility of the storm making a direct hit to approximately the northern half of the island, with the entire islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Oahu within that cone, as well as the eastern half of Kauai.
“We expect the center of the storm to pass along the center of the track, but there could be some deviation. And that’s why it’s called the ‘cone of uncertainty,’” said National Weather Service meteorologist Chevy Chevalier late Saturday afternoon.
Chevalier said the most significant likely impact of the storm will be “maybe some increased rain as some more tropical moisture comes over the Big Island.”
“In the mountains there and along the Hamakua Coast will probably see quite a bit of rain and probably some increased wind speeds. Not crazy wind speeds but an increase in wind speeds, not sure of the exact numbers yet, but higher than normal, 10, 15, 20 knots is possible,” Chevalier said. “The most important impact will probably be the rain. We got a dose of rain the other day from Erick, so we’ve already got some saturated ground in some areas. But if we see some rain from Flossie, that’s probably the highest risk — flash flooding, things of that nature.”
As of early Saturday evening, no flash flood or wind warnings, watches or advisories had been issued.
The high surf warning, which encompasses the north-, east- and south-facing shores of Hawaii Island and windward shores of Maui, is in effect until 6 a.m. Monday.
According to forecasters, surf heights are expected to rise to between 8 and 12 feet tonight and between 10 and 15 feet on Monday.
Hawaii County Civil Defense said at about 4:30 p.m. Saturday there are no closures of roads because of Flossie. An official said an evaluation would be made today about any potential closures due to weather or surf.
The Bayfront parking lot in downtown Hilo remains closed, including the Mooheau bus terminal. The county’s Hele On bus will continue to pick up and drop off passengers behind Afook-Chinen Civic Auditorium on Manono Street in Hilo until further notice.
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Gil showed little change in intensity since being upgraded late Saturday morning. As of 5 p.m. Saturday, the center of Gil was situated about 2,095 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,050 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula.
Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph with higher gusts and the storm is moving west at 12 mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin by late today, and Gil is expected to dissipate by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Erick had been downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression as it continued to move away from the islands.
At 5 p.m. Erick was about 530 miles west-southwest of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm continued to move to the west-northwest at 14 mph.
Erick is expected to continue weakening and become a post-tropical cyclone today, then dissipate on Monday.
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.