We are hearing a lot of optimism about electric zero-emission vehicles. Predictions that the engine is all but history. Take a deep breath, how many other futuristic predictions have you heard that did not come out like they predicted. Electric vehicles will have a definite place. Most commuter trains are electric but they run on a fixed route with an overhead wire or third rail. Cars, trucks and some buses are not so predictable, they need batteries.
Every electric vehicle needs a source of electricity most of which in the realistic future comes from burning carbon. Renewable sources, mostly wind, solar, and geothermal are improving but encounter resistance of their own. Hydro is pretty much developed to its potential limit in America. Nuclear has potential, but has serious political issues due to a few badly managed situations that tar the reputation of all nuclear, even those that are unlike the headline failures. Fusion remains a pipe dream, or a welfare program for physicists.
Let’s assume the utilities build enough wind and solar capacity to meet our needs. They need enough storage to keep the power on, not just overnight but for weeks if there is a natural disaster. Storage capacity falls in two categories efficient but expensive or economical but inefficient.
Petroleum products are uniquely suited to the needs of transportation. Their energy density cannot be beaten by anything that isn’t radioactive. They are conveniently liquid making them easy to store, they fit any shape gas tank. Liquids are easily transported by pipelines and are easily transferred between all sorts of containers from a 200,000-ton ship to 5-gallon jerry-can. Gases especially hydrogen require heavy pressure tanks that must be cylindrical. Batteries, are very heavy, they consist of thousands of cells. Batteries can be configured to fit, but that makes them proprietary not interchangeable; inevitably more expensive.
Emergency and military vehicles cannot be limited to charging stations. The Army won’t find charging stations behind enemy lines. Fire engines, after they get to the fire, often have to operate pumps and other equipment for hours, even days. You can’t put 100 kilowatt hours in a jerry-can and deliver it where it’s needed. In some emergencies the only electricity available is from the fire truck’s generator.
Replacing millions of engine powered vehicles with an equivalent capacity of electrics will require a
prodigious mining effort. Maybe ten times as much lithium in the next 10 years as has ever been mined. Electric cars will need probably twice as much copper, fortunately copper is very recyclable. Almost all the copper ever refined is still in use. Rare earth metals are important too, they may not be so rare, we will have to wait and see.
One would expect electric cars less likely to catch fire, but experience has shown that when the lithium batteries do, the fire is almost impossible to extinguish. The end-of-life recycling is a factor. Most common metals are infinitely recyclable, but what about the lithium batteries?
When I examine the lifecycle and cost-per-mile of an electric vehicle it keeps coming out about the same as an engine driven vehicle. It is only advantageous, if you have favorable renewable electric rates, excess solar or a subsidy. If you have to burn carbon to charge the batteries, it’s a clear loser.
Hydrogen superficially looks like a clean a plug-in replacement for petroleum. It is the cleanest fuel, if you can get it. There are a few problems with the Hindenburg gas, but the big one is not the one you thought of. The stuff is harder to contain than a rumor. It leaks through glass. Hydrogen tanks have to be so heavy they offset all the advantages. Oh, you have to liberate it from something else. It is an engineering cliché is that hydrogen is the fuel of the future and it always will be.
All these questions need to be examined. The point here is not to discourage the research, but to offset the political hype that promises more than technology can deliver.
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. Send feedback to obenskik@gmail.com