States around the country are cutting taxes en masse ahead of the midterms. This probably comes as welcome news to Americans struggling to afford the rising cost of living and worried about a possible recession.

But it’s a bad development — precisely because of those inflation and recession risks.

At least 27 states plus the District of Columbia have passed significant tax cuts so far this year, according to a recent tally from the Tax Policy Center’s Richard C. Auxier. That’s in addition to the tax cuts doled out by 29 states and the District last year. These states are disproportionately, though not exclusively, red and purple ones, with some blue states joining in on the fun.

There are a few reasons why this signifies some grave policy errors. The first is that these tax cuts are partly enabled by funds from last year’s American Rescue Plan, President Biden’s $1.9 trillion, deficit-financed covid relief bill. Which provides yet more evidence that the package contained significant waste.

The American Rescue Plan was supposed to help states struggling with budget crunches, and thereby prevent the kind of painful austerity measures (layoffs, reductions in public services) that states undertook a decade ago in the aftermath of the Great Recession. But the pandemic recession looked very different than the Great Recession, and in fact, most state budgets exited the 2020 downturn in pretty good fiscal health.

That was due to a combination of factors, including the distribution of job losses; unusually generous unemployment benefits and other federal programs that helped support consumer spending; and rising property values. States’ own tax revenue held up remarkably well, so states didn’t need much fiscal help.

But Democratic lawmakers, still fighting the last war, gave out a lot of state aid anyway. And they put the cost on Uncle Sam’s credit card.

Congress tried to prevent states from using these funds on tax cuts. For practical and legal reasons, though, this restriction proved hard to enforce. So faced with one-time budget surpluses, a lot of states decided to hand that federal cash over to constituents in the form of tax cuts and rebates.

In sum: Federal Democrats accidentally made it easier for (largely Republican) state politicians to slash taxes ahead of the midterms. Republicans can therefore claim credit for a popular policy change and still blame Democrats for the enormous (federal) cost of that policy change.

This proved to be a political blunder, as well as an economic one.

Again, duh, tax cuts are popular, particularly as Americans are struggling with painful inflation. They want a little extra pocket money. In California, where Democrats are in charge, political leaders even branded newly passed tax rebates of up to $1,050 as an “inflation relief package.”

Unfortunately, this kind of policy might worsen inflation, at least if enough states slash taxes at large enough scale simultaneously.

That’s because inflation is fundamentally driven by a mismatch between strong demand and still-constrained supply. Giving people more money to spend will stimulate consumer demand further, so these tax cuts will add to upward pricing pressures. The effect may be small, but it’s still unhelpful.

It’s especially unhelpful in states focusing their tax-cutting firepower on gas taxes. Gas tax holidays will encourage more consumption of gasoline, which is perhaps the market in which demand already most outstrips supply.

Finally, there’s the question of timing. State-level politicians are trying to jam through their tax cuts before the November election. But for a host of reasons, the risk of recession over the next year is rising. That could leave states more vulnerable to the same kinds of budget crunches they’ve suffered before.

Thanks to inflation, states’ costs (for construction, for example) have already been rising. And depending on the trajectory that the next recession might take, states’ tax revenue could plummet, too.

In such circumstances, states might want a sizable rainy-day fund. This is especially true since Congress may not be willing to offer them much assistance next time around — precisely because of the deteriorating reputation of the American Rescue Plan and earlier Trump-era covid fiscal packages.

After watching governors and state legislatures squander some of last year’s aid, federal lawmakers may be reluctant to provide more direct transfers to replenish state coffers. Likewise, last year’s debate over whether expanded unemployment benefits and other safety net programs discouraged Americans from working may reduce political support for the kinds of federal programs that could more indirectly support state tax revenue.

Additionally, as Auxier noted, some states have supermajority rules that make raising taxes more challenging than cutting them.

So sure, tax cuts might seem like a popular course of action now, in the months leading up to an election. But soon enough, state policymakers may come to regret them.

Catherine Rampell’s email address is crampell@washpost.com. Follow her on Twitter, @crampell.