The Bright Side: Who’s On First? Statistics in sports

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Kathleen Wyatt is currently the leading angler in the HMT Series. She stands with her sons Colton and Hudson, husband Jamison and Capt. K.J. Robinson. (Courtesy photo/HMT Series)
“Painless” Paul Douglas celebrates the second largest marlin of the HMT Series to date - a 747 pounder from the Firecracker Open. (Courtesy photo/HMT Series)
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Statistics are a funny thing. They don’t always paint a complete picture, and in certain circumstances they can even be misleading. If there were not statistics in sports, however, it would be like a bazillion trees falling in the woods with nobody around to count how many made noise.

Consider golf: very simple statistics on scorecards are the sum total of scoring the entire game. Without the simple number of 72 as par, how would you score golf?

“Hey Joe, how’d you shoot today?”

“Aw man it was epic. I won the round with the most beautiful shot of the day.”

To which Joe’s three opponents would chime all at once, “You did NOT! I did!”

Imagine trying to settle a $10 million dollar PGA purse based upon the most beautiful golf shot of the round. Not going to happen. Not in golf or any other sport. Stats are here to stay, misleading or not. Babe Ruth hit 714 home runs. That’s stats.

On the other hand, take the topic of “slow fishing.” Who judges? Every year some teams in the Hawaii Marlin Tournament Series complain of slow fishing because they quite simply haven’t caught much, if anything at all. But every year one team or another goes on a hot streak and turn in score cards putting them in the winners circle in multiple tournaments, as well as the Series Championship. Twice now, this has elicited ire from a small percentage of those experiencing slow fishing, who angrily call for rule changes. Wonder what The Babe would say to that?

In 2021, Team Wild Hooker turned in an impressive cumulative score of 8,154.5 points – a Series record. Drill down into that scorecard; they earned four 1st place finishes and one 2nd place finish by tagging and releasing 26 marlin and weighing three. The closest to them was Sea Genie II with 3,400 points. That’s a big difference.

Obviously, the guys on Wild Hooker liked statistics last year – a lot. This year? Not so much. Although they have been in the winner’s circle, so far their score card tallies a total of 1,995.5 points.

For Sea Genie II however, statistics are their friend. Kathleen Wyatt has caught all the fish on her family oriented team, inking 14 tags and a marlin that bottomed the scale out at an impressive 942.5 pounds – truly a world class catch. Total score for Sea Genie II at the August break is 3,952 points, with two 1st place and one 2nd place finish.

This is the part where statistics can be misleading. The Wild Hooker score quoted above was at the end of the season, after all tourneys had fished. Sea Genie II score is after six events. There are still two more to go. However, even if at the end of the season their catches matched up exactly with Wild Hooker from last year, they would not post the same cumulative score. Why? Because tag and release points have been reduced from 200 per to 165 per blue marlin in 2022. Why again? Because 165 is the average estimated weight reported on score cards for all fish tagged and released in 2021. They are released. Estimates are all we have.

So the “record” score of Wild Hooker might stand in perpetuity because the scoring basis has been revised. With statistics, you have to take in all the factors to understand what’s really going on. Maybe not with Babe Ruth homers, but in fishing? Yep.

As example, standing in 2nd place overall so far this year is Last Chance with 3,605 points. Capt. Tracy Epstein and company have 17 tags on their score card. They have not weighed a qualifier all season, but on points alone they have racked up one 1st place, two 2nd place and one 3rd place finishes. They have actually caught more fish than Sea Genie II, but have not scored more points. Pesky statistics strike again!

Kathleen Wyatt is firmly in the lead in the Angler Division of the HMT Series with her 3,952.5 points. One might think that Last Chance would be close here too, but they scored their points with four different anglers catching the fish.

Here is a different type of stat: Sea Genie II is unusual in the tournament fleet in that 4/5 of the team members are all family. Only Capt. K.J. Robinson is not related. Mom Kathleen angles, Dad Jamison handles all the deck work (and work it is!) Their two boys, Colton and Hudson, back them up with whatever task is at hand, the most important of which is capturing all of the tag and release video documentation. That is a high-pressure job!

Capt. Teddy Hoogs is at the helm of Bwana, and they fish in a manner similar to Sea Genie II in that they fish with a set team – each member has the same job every tournament. Owner Craig Lindner is currently in 2nd place in the HMT Series Angler Division while Bwana as a Team is in 3rd place at the moment with 2,480 points.

All in all, the teams in the 2022 HMT Series have caught a total of 161 marlin with 152 of those tagged and released – a tag rate of 94.4%. The 942.5-pound blue is the largest. Second largest is a 747 pounder caught by Paul Douglas on board Marlin Magic.

At this point last year, the total was 181 marlin caught with 173 tagged and released – a tag rate of 95.5%. Only one statistic holds pretty steady, year after year – the tag and release rate. It always hovers around 95%, which bodes well for the fish and marlin conservation.

By comparing that last set of stats, one might wonder, “Is fishing this year slower than last year, as some people claim?” Depends on who you ask. If you are Kathleen Wyatt it hasn’t been slow at all.

2022 HMT Series Big Fish List

Sea Genie II 949.5 lbs. Sea Genie II Lazy Marlin Hunt

Paul Douglas 747 lbs. Marlin Magic Firecracker Open

Edgar Artecona 688 lbs. SAPO Lure Makers Challenge

Chip Wagner 558.5 lbs. Sea Baby II Skins Marlin Derby

Guy Arrington 544.5 lbs Wild Hooker Lure Makers Challenge

Nick Wada 497 lbs. Northern Lights Lure Makers Challenge

Joy Painter 490 lbs. Mauna Loa Lure Makers Challenge

Ed Boyd 474 lbs. Pursuit Firecracker Open

Tim Lemman 409 lbs. APEX Firecracker Open

2022 HMT Series Standings by team/boat

Sea Genie II 3,952.5 pts.

Last Chance 3,605 pts.

Bwana 2,480 pts.

APEX 2,029 pts.

Wild Hooker 1,999.5 pts.

Marlin Magic 1,37.5 pts.

SAPO 1,548 pts.

Mauna Loa 1,350 pts.

Pursuit 1,299 pts.

Legend 1,255 pts.

Sea Baby II 1,253.5 pts

2022 HMT Series standings by angler

Kathleen Wyatt 3,952.5 pts. Sea Genie II

Craig Lindner 2,480 pts. Bwana

Chad Beaudry 1,691.83 pts. Last Chance

Painless Paul Douglas 1,577.5 pts. Marlin Magic/Legend

Edgar Artecona 1,548 pts. SAPO

Tim Lemman 1,384 pts. APEX

Ed Boyd 1,299 pts. Pursuit

Guy Arrington 1,174.5 pts. Wild Hooker

Chip Wagner 1088 pts. Sea Baby II

Joy Painter 1020 pts. Mauna Loa