Two hundred and thirty days after Vladimir Putin invaded his sovereign, democratic neighbor, the war in Ukraine is looking as successful from Moscow’s perspective as the decade-long Soviet slog in Afghanistan.
Putin knows this, which explains why he’s striking Ukrainian cities. If the war must drag on, he seems to say, it will be punishingly painful for ordinary people in the nation of more than 40 million. Indeed, beyond that, he is eager to make the coming winter a season of misery across Europe, as nations seeking to stand in lockstep against his aggression try to survive the coldest months without Russian gas.
Technically, Putin’s missile attacks on metropolitan centers across Ukraine, hitting mostly civilian targets — and killing, among others, a doctor who specializes in treating children with cancer — were an act of retaliation for Ukraine’s damaging of his treasured Crimea Bridge, connecting Russia with the Ukrainian peninsula it annexed in 2014.
But the magnitude of the attacks suggests something different may well be at play here. Russia’s dictator, facing domestic blowback as his draft lands with a thud and his soldiers retreat in the south, may be sending a signal that a defeat, if it comes, will be on his own terms. It’s the rough equivalent of a drunken man who refuses to leave, trashing a bar after last call.
Many of Monday’s strikes employed old, unguided missiles, seeming to confirm Western suspicions that Russia’s stockpile of more sophisticated armaments is dwindling. Indeed, the bear has been increasingly buying drones from North Korea and Iran, a sign that tight sanctions are paying dividends.
No one wants to see one of the world’s most powerful militaries drag out a brutal war of attrition. No one, and we mean no one, wants to see Putin reach into his nuclear arsenal to try to regain the upper hand. Yet as those real risks remain, the signs are flashing brighter that the tyrant is losing. Ukraine, aided by the United States and its allies across the world, must press every advantage.