Even as an economic downturn looms on the horizon, a University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization report predicts that the state will dodge an economic recession, if only barely.
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham said during a livestreamed interview Friday with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that Hawaii’s economy is “out of sync” and lags behind that of the U.S. mainland.
But while that means the state’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been slower than that of the mainland, it also means that it likely will avoid the worst impacts of an economic downturn, thanks in large part to the tourism industry.
“Hawaii is feeling the effects of the national economic challenges,” according to the report, which was released on Friday. “Higher mortgage rates are battering the housing market and inflation is undercutting household purchasing power. But the ongoing recovery of international travel — particularly from Japan — will provide support for tourism as the mainland market softens in 2023.”
Visitor counts to Hawaii have risen to about 93% of prepandemic levels, UHERO