HONOLULU — Before the start of this University of Hawaii football season, one of the most interesting questions being asked was, “How many wins will it take for head coach Norm Chow to save his job?”
The answers varied, depending on who was asked. For the doubters who already wanted him out after last year’s 1-11 season, nothing less than seven victories (and the accompanying Hawaii Bowl bid) would suffice. That, of course, would have required a six-win improvement — a tall order that is extremely rare in college football.
Chow’s supporters, knowing this season’s schedule is a challenging one and understanding that a rebuilding project often takes several years to complete, may have set four victories as a realistic goal. That would represent a three-game improvement from last year and equal Chow’s win total from his first two years combined. On paper, the Rainbow Warriors were favored over only three opponents on the schedule — Northern Iowa, Wyoming and Nevada-Las Vegas.
So assuming they won the games they were supposed to, plus one upset to offer hope for next year, the theory was that a 4-9 record would be enough to give Chow another year to show the program is on the right track.
Unfortunately, the season has played out exactly like the second scenario and not at all like the first, so the question now is, “Has Chow’s ‘magic number’ changed?” UH athletic director Ben Jay said from the beginning he would wait until after the season to evaluate Chow’s performance and would not make a decision before then. At least publicly, he has stuck to that plan, so obviously Jay’s “magic number” for Chow was not seven victories or even six — otherwise Chow would have been let go by now.
But even by his strongest supporters’ standards, Chow clearly is skating on thin ice at this point. The Rainbow Warriors are 2-8, with only three games remaining, two of them on the road. They absolutely need to win at least one of three, and probably two in order for Chow to keep his job. Some would say even three victories — which would put Hawaii at 5-8 — are necessary to convince Jay to keep Chow on board.
In any case, this Saturday’s game at San Jose State is crucial to Chow’s future. A win would be great, of course, but more importantly the Rainbow Warriors need to be somewhat competitive and show improvement after last Saturday’s 49-22 drubbing at Colorado State. It’s important because their performance at San Jose State will influence how many fans show up to the “Senior Night” home finale vs. UNLV on Nov. 22.
A victory at San Jose State (3-6) would be huge for several reasons, most importantly snapping a three-year, 17-game road losing streak. Although the streak started before Chow took over, all but one of those 17 losses are attached to him, so it has been one of the main arguments to let Chow go.
Secondly, it would rejuvenate the team and fans with a much-needed morale boost, and perhaps bring out the curious fence-sitters to the Senior Night game.
Even a competitive defeat, say, in overtime or by a narrow one-touchdown margin (the Rainbow Warriors opened as 10-point underdogs), would at least be better than the rout at Colorado State. Something to show improvement, and provide hope.
It can start, as usual, with quarterback Ikaika Woolsey and his receivers. Woolsey’s completion percentage of 48.5 percent ranks him at No. 112 out of 115 Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks with a minimum of 15 attempts per game. It did not help that seven of his 31 incompletions last Saturday were dropped — a common practice at UH this fall.
Woolsey was 16 of 47 (34 percent) with two interceptions, sinking his pass efficiency rating to 99.4, also at 112th in the nation.
Running back Joey Iosefa, who had been out for the previous seven games due to an ankle injury and suspension after being arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol, was expected to give the offense a big boost. But Iosefa rushed for only 64 yards on 19 carries (3.4 ypc) with one touchdown.
He is expected to make a bigger contribution this Saturday, especially since backup Steven Lakalaka suffered a hamstring injury at Colorado State. Look for Diocemy Saint Juste, who gained only six yards on three carries last Saturday, to get more touches this week.
Whatever the case, the Rainbow Warriors must be able to sustain drives, something they have struggled to do all season, which is taking its toll on a once-solid defense. Hawaii is 110th in the nation in scoring average (20.1), 109th in sacks allowed, 108th in time of possession, 107th in third-down conversions (33.9 percent) and 103rd in total offense (356.6 yards per game).
On defense, the Rainbow Warriors allowed season-highs in points (49) and total yards (580) at Colorado State, and gave up 28 first-half points for the second straight week. Rams running back Dee Hart (115 yards rushing) became the sixth straight opponent to reach the century mark. UH is also tied for 107th in the nation in turnover margin, is 106th in pass efficiency defense and tied for 102nd in red zone defense.
It will not be easy to get the air attack going against a San Jose State defense that leads the nation in fewest passing yards allowed (124.4 per game), but the opportunity could be there for Iosefa and Saint Juste to establish the ground game against a Spartans unit ranked 114th in rushing defense. San Jose State also is tied for 114th in turnover margin, so the Rainbow Warriors may have a rare chance to create extra possessions.
Also, if history is any indication, UH has played as well in San Jose as almost anywhere else on the mainland: Each of the Rainbow Warriors’ previous three games at Spartan Stadium was decided in overtime (2007 and 2009) or in the final minute of the game (2011). It usually helps to have a decent amount of fan support, with families of Bay Area players such as Woolsey (from Rodeo) along with many Hawaii transplants/UH alumni in attendance.
On paper, it looks like a winnable game.
And in reality, it may be a game Chow needs to win to help save his job.