Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico has become better organized during the past few hours, and a tropical depression will likely form in the coming 24 hours,
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico has become better organized during the past few hours, and a tropical depression will likely form in the coming 24 hours, National Hurricane Center forecasters based in Miami say.
In addition, satellite data indicate that the low-level circulation has become better defined Wednesday morning. Environmental conditions are favorable for the tropical depression to form later Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides, forecasters cautioned.
The center gave the system a 90 percent of forming into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within five days.
National Hurricane Center officials in May predicted 14 to 20 named storms and seven to 11 hurricanes — including three to six major hurricanes — to form this year in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Overall, they gave the 2014 season a 50 percent chance of being above normal, 40 percent chance of being near-normal and a 10 percent chance of being below normal.
The Eastern Pacific averages 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes each year, according to the center.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began May 15 and ends Nov. 30.
