Tropical Storm Ana was strengthening rapidly toward hurricane status Wednesday as the cyclone, still about 680 miles east-southeast of Kailua-Kona, set its wobbling sights on Hawaii. ADVERTISING Tropical Storm Ana was strengthening rapidly toward hurricane status Wednesday as the cyclone,
Tropical Storm Ana was strengthening rapidly toward hurricane status Wednesday as the cyclone, still about 680 miles east-southeast of Kailua-Kona, set its wobbling sights on Hawaii.
The latest forecast track has Ana brushing past South Point with hurricane winds of 80 mph Saturday afternoon or evening. The climatic forces steering the system are more complex than Hurricane Iselle, and National Weather Service forecasters aren’t certain where Ana will go. The track Monday night took the storm over the eastern portion of the island. Tuesday, the projection shifted Ana onto a course just past the island’s southern tip.
Ana was projected to become a hurricane Wednesday.
Everyone should prepare for the weather, regardless of what side of the island they live on, NWS forecaster Tom Birchard said. That’s true for the entire state as well. Residents should be reviewing their emergency plans and stocking disaster kits, he said.
“At this point we’re all potentially impacted,” Birchard said.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast models currently indicate a 21 percent chance of tropical storm force winds affecting Hilo, a 22 percent chance of tropical storm force winds in Kailua-Kona and a 32 percent chance of tropical storm force winds affecting South Point between 8 a.m. Friday and 8 a.m. Saturday. Between 8 a.m. Saturday and 8 a.m. Sunday, the models show a 23 percent chance of tropical storm force winds in Hilo, a 27 percent chance in Kailua-Kona and a 34 percent chance at South Point. From 8 a.m. Sunday to 8 a.m. Monday, the chance of tropical storm force winds affecting Hilo was 23 percent, Kailua-Kona 28 percent and South Point 34 percent.
Tropical storm force winds — also referred to as damaging winds — range between 39 and 73 mph.
The models also show a 10 percent chance of hurricane force winds — winds greater than 74 mph — affecting Hilo, a 9 percent chance in Kailua-Kona and a 14 percent chance at South Point between 8 a.m. Friday and 8 a.m. Saturday. Between 8 a.m. Saturday and 8 a.m. Sunday, the models show a 10 percent chance of hurricane force winds in Hilo, an 11 percent chance in Kailua-Kona and a 15 percent chance at South Point. From 8 a.m. Sunday to 8 a.m. Monday, the chance of hurricane force winds affecting Hilo was 10 percent, Kailua-Kona 11 percent and South Point 15 percent.
Darryl Oliveira, Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator, said residents could expect to see impacts as early as Friday from the storm, which could produce surf between 25 and 40 feet on the southeast coast and rainfall between 10 and 15 inches.
Oliveira also noted heavy winds and rain could impact other areas of the county.
“If it passes the southern tip of the Big Island, it still could have tropical storm force winds as far north as Puna and Hilo areas,” he said.
Wednedsay morning, Ana was heading west-northwest around 9 mph — a compact system with sustained winds of 70 mph and tropical storm force winds extending 65 miles from the center. The cyclone is expected to peak with 90 mph winds Thursday and Friday before gradually weakening. U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will fly into Ana this week to help forecasters pinpoint the storm’s track and strength, a spokesperson for the weather reconnaissance squadron said.
A trough passing to the north of the storm later this week is expected to cause slight weakening and uncertainty in the track.
“There is still a fair amount of uncertainty and potential for changes,” Birchard said. “But the sooner you are prepared, the better, as far as dealing with the crowds. Some people don’t act until a watch or warning is issued.”
Warm water in the range of 81 to 82 degrees along the forecast track, plus light wind shear are providing favorable conditions for Ana to continue strengthening. The water is about 3 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year to the east and southeast of the islands, Birchard said.
American Red Cross officials are contacting volunteers and conferring with Civil Defense and the state Department of Education on potentially opening shelters at schools around the island, said Barney Sheffield, disaster manager for Hawaii Island.
“We’re calling volunteers, the shelter managers first, and trying to give them some kind of a time frame, but we know how hard that is with these systems,” Sheffield said. “We’re making sure they’re on-island and available.”
The Red Cross opened 11 shelters around the island as Hurricane Iselle approached. Iselle, which hit Puna as a tropical storm Aug. 7, had a fairly straightforward track to the west, and it was possible to keep an eye on the system as it approached from far in the east. Ana formed in the Central Pacific much closer to Hawaii, the second named storm for the basin this season.
Ana has been moving at only half the speed of Iselle, which buys the islands some time to prepare, Birchard said.
Stephens Media Hawaii reporter Tom Callis contributed to this report.
