Cruz is all about that base

Now that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has thrown his cowboy hat into the ring for president, it’s time to start handicapping the candidates, even if some of us may wish that we had more choices.

That’s OK, my fellow Americans. You vote for — or against — the choices that you have. Do you hear me, progressive-wing Democrats who are begging Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren to challenge Hillary Clinton?

Yes, Clinton, who hasn’t run for any office since 2008, could use the competition to sharpen her pitch. But nobody on the left appears to be ready, viable or well-funded enough to take her on. So let’s focus on the elephants, whose herd of presidential wannabes seems to grow larger by the day.

In the past, I have predicted yet another Bush vs. Clinton race in 2016, as in Jeb vs. Hillary. I’m still sticking to that prediction. I also caution that eight years ago at this time I, like many others, was predicting a Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani ballot.

That’s why I am not going to rule out any dark horse. The unpredictability of the American voter reigns supreme, reassuring us all that big money, strategists and spin-doctors have not completely taken over the process.

Cruz is noteworthy for setting the terms of debate within the party as they try to return to the White House after eight years out of office — and after losing the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections.

To paraphrase a popular rock tune, Cruz is all about that base — the Grand Old Party’s conservative base.

In announcing his campaign at Liberty University — founded by the late Rev. Jerry Falwell, a leader in the rise of the religious right as a political force in the 1980s — Cruz declared his own war against the “mushy middle.” That’s his shot at the pragmatic conservatives who favor former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose record only looks moderate next to hardliners like Cruz.

Of course, what Cruz denounces as the “mushy middle” is what most people would call a “winning majority.”

By setting his kickoff at Liberty University, Cruz surprised many Republicans because he had not previously presented himself as a socially or religiously conservative like Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum.

Even Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, our most conservative presidents in modern times, left room for themselves to tack back toward the middle after their nominations to appeal to moderate swing voters. Instead of reaching out toward the political middle, Cruz is digging in with the far-right.

To compete with the well-funded business and country-club establishment that boosted John McCain and Mitt Romney, and that now favors pragmatists like Bush or Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Cruz appears to be turning to the populist foot soldiers of the tea party and religious right who will turn out to knock on doors, work telephones and raise millions through lots of small donations.

Yet, despite all the hoopla that has been raised by Cruz’s announcement, it has an aroma of desperation about it. His polling numbers have slumped and resentments are rising among many of his fellow Republicans about his grandstanding.

A Quinnipiac University poll in late February of likely Iowa Republican caucus participants put Walker ahead of the pack with 25 percent, twice as high as his nearest rival, Rand Paul, who had 13 percent support.

Close on Paul’s heels was physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 11 percent each, and Bush with 10 percent.

Only 5 percent of respondents favored Cruz.

Cruz’s popularity may have peaked during his 2013 filibuster and revolt against the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, more widely known as Obamacare. He boasts about his bold stands but is much less eager to bring up how little his grandstanding accomplished, except a 16-day government shutdown.

With that in mind, Cruz’s rivals already are murmuring that a vote for Cruz is a vote for Hillary Clinton. For GOP voters who miss having one of their own in the White House, an old question returns: Do you want to make a point or elect a president?

Email Clarence Page at cpagetribune.com.