As we enter a presidential election year, pundits are focused on the incessant drama — criminal and otherwise — swirling around a potential rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But there’s more at stake — in particular, the U.S. Senate.
Democrats enjoy a narrow 51-49 edge in the upper chamber thanks to three “independents” who align with the party. But the Senate electoral map presents challenges for Democrats while offering an opening for Republicans — if they can overcome the party’s recent track record of squandering opportunity.
Only 11 of the 34 Senate races this fall involve incumbent Republicans, and all of those are in states that Trump carried in 2020. Meanwhile, Democrats must defend 23 seats, eight of which the nonpartisan congressional watchdog group Inside Elections rate as potentially vulnerable. Those include the seat held by Nevada’s Jacky Rosen.
“The Senate majority is firmly in play,” the group’s publisher told The Wall Street Journal, “and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate.”
The obstacles mounted for Democrats when Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced late last year that he would not seek another term. His state has become solidly red in recent years and is almost certain to flip to the GOP. That leaves Democrats with, at best, a split chamber. Democratic seats in Montana and Ohio will also be difficult to hold.
Yet the GOP has been here before. The party woefully underperformed in the 2022 midterms, barely eking out a House majority despite widespread skepticism from the electorate about the performance of a Democratic president. Republicans also lost one seat in the Senate during that election despite a generally favorable landscape.
To avoid a repeat this year, Republicans would do well to field competent candidates who present a vision moving forward rather than a penchant for wallowing in past grievances. Such a vision would draw a stark contrast to this White House’s agenda of dependency and open borders by emphasizing the values of hard work, economic freedom, low taxes, reasonable federal regulation, border security and a sane immigration policy. Republicans will also have to neutralize the abortion issue, which has been a boon to Democratic turnout.
It wouldn’t hurt for the GOP to court independent voters who have grown despondent with gutter politics — from both sides of the aisle — by offering candidates who do more than appeal to party extremists while valuing statesmanship, respect and decorum.
Eleven months is an eternity in politics, particularly when the potential presidential candidates are each carrying more Samsonite than an airport luggage carousel. But opportunity is ringing the doorbell for Republicans in the Senate. Will they hear it this time?
