Six horses will leave the final turn together, a cavalry charge that will dissipate into a two-horse match race. But California Chrome will hold off Ride On Curlin to win Saturday’s 139th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.
Long shot Kid Cruz will complete the triple, while Bayern will sputter to fourth. It’s going to be close, though.
How can a heavy favorite like 3-5 morning-line choice California Chrome not win after taking the Kentucky Derby?
Odds mean nothing in major races like this. Derby winner and 3-5 favorite Orb finished fourth at the 2013 Preakness.
The key is watching who finishes best, and the first turn will have a big impact on the ending. The 10-horse field for the second leg of the Triple Crown features blistering early speed that may dictate the finish. If Social Inclusion forces the early pace from the No. 10 post, there are enough front-runners to create torrid early fractions.
Bayern, General a Rod, Dynamic Impact, Ring Weekend and Social Inclusion will all try to steal this race from the start — just like Oxbow did last year when he led nearly every step. The difference is Oxbow didn’t have a lot of early speed alongside him, so he had plenty left for a stretch run after an easy opening three-quarter mile. These front-runners won’t get off to such an easy start.
The top of the stretch will be tight and history says the Preakness winner is rarely worse than second when entering the lane. That means California Chrome, Ride on Curlin and Kid Cruz will move midway on the final turn.
The question will be whether California Chrome will get caught up in the early speed and won’t have enough to outlast Ride on Curlin and Kid Cruz. Surely jockey Victor Espinoza knows better, but things happen in races. Mental clocks are misjudged. Espinoza is a better rider on the front end of races. He stole 2002’s Derby and Preakness early with War Emblem.
Ultimately, California Chrome is the class of the field. Hopefully, Espinoza races the colt well so they can head to the Belmont Stakes in New York with a chance to end the sport’s 36-year Triple Crown drought.
Ride On Curlin is a classic money burner. He looks every bit the champion that his sire, Curlin, was when he won the 2007 Preakness. Ride On Curlin is just one classy-looking long, muscular runner who thunders late down the stretch. But he’s also won just two of 10 lifetime races with eight on-board finishes. He’s a great exacta horse that rarely punches through to win it all.
Kid Cruz is remindful of past Maryland runners such as 1995 Preakness runner-up Oliver’s Twist and 2002 runner-up Magic Weisner that were horses for courses. Put him in triples at 15-1.
That’s a 3-10-7 triple – may the horse be with you.
