BAGHDAD — Iraq’s parliament will meet Wednesday to elect a new president, a crucial step toward naming a new prime minister and government, but questions are growing about whether anyone can save the country after the collapse of its army and the loss of as much as half its territory to the radical Islamic State.
In a sign of the erosion of political order, 100 people are competing in Wednesday’s vote — for a post whose occupant in past years was determined in advance by the top power brokers.
“Tomorrow’s vote will be devoid of any political deals,” Salim al Jubouri, the speaker of the parliament, a Sunni Muslim, said Tuesday. “We will evaluate nominations with complete equality.”
The most prominent candidate is Barham Salih, a former prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, a moderate politician who has lines out to nearly every other faction.
Like nearly all the Sunni and Kurdish parliamentarians and most Shiite Muslims, Salih is highly critical of the current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, for mismanaging relations with Kurds and Sunnis and for the corruption in the security services, which is blamed for their rout last month at the hands of Islamic extremists throughout northern and western Iraq.
By tradition, the speaker of parliament should be a Sunni, the prime minister a Shiite and the successor to the outgoing president, Jalal Talabani, should be a Kurd from his Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party.
But this time, Kurds have announced a referendum on independence and are halfway out the door. The PUK has named two candidates, Salih and veteran politician Fouad Massoum, and there may be a third.
Those who have tossed their hats in the ring include members of the National Alliance, a grouping of the major Shiite parties, starting with al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition. Kurdish officials say they’ll have no dealings with the new president if he or she is a Shiite.
Whoever is elected — and the vote might stretch into next week — it’s anything but clear that a new president can prevent the state from breaking up. The first challenge will be to manage the political process, which translates into replacing al-Maliki with a Shiite who is acceptable to all religious and ethnic factions. It’s a difficult task, as al-Maliki emerged from the April 30 elections controlling the biggest bloc — with 93 seats in the 328-seat parliament — but far short of the majority needed.
Then there’s the personality issue. Salih, while widely respected, has spent little time in Baghdad in recent years and doesn’t have the extensive ties with Sunni and Shiite politicians that Talabani had. Talabani himself has been off the scene for more than 18 months, recovering from a stroke in Germany.
“Everyone loved and respected Talabani, and they all have a long, long history with him,” said Dana Asaad, the editor in chief of Awene.com, a Kurdish website. “Barham Salih cannot have the influence on all the different players that Talabani had. I don’t think there is another Kurd who can play that role.”
