BEIJING — The largest study of the coronavirus in China so far has concluded that elderly patients and people with pre-existing health conditions are most at risk of dying from COVID-19, as a leading expert predicted that the outbreak was at or near its peak.
Most cases of the disease are mild, while the overall death rate is 2.3%, according the study by China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The research looked at more than 70,000 COVID-19 cases, including confirmed, suspected and asymptomatic cases, as of Feb. 11.
In the last 24-hour interval, authorities reported 1,886 new cases and 98 deaths on Tuesday, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,868. Both the number of new infections and deaths had dropped slightly from the past few days.
A renowned epidemiologist, Zhong Nanshan, said he expected the outbreak to peak by middle to late February, later than initially estimated, according to Southern Metropolis Daily.
Zhong said he expected the situation to be “stable” by the end of April.
The World Health Organization (WHO) had said Monday the number of new coronavirus infections in China appeared to be declining, though it was too early to tell if the reported decline would continue.
The CDC study put the overall death rate from the virus at 2.3%, with the age group most at risk being elderly people. The death rate was 14.8% for people above 80 years old, while for those aged 10 to 39, the average death rate was 0.2%.
Data analysis of a subgroup of about 20,000 people showed that patients without any prior medical conditions had a 0.9% fatality rate.
The majority of the cases — 80.9% — showed mild symptoms, while 13.8% of the cases were severe and 4.7% were critical, according to the study.
The National Health Commission counted 72,436 infections across the country as of Tuesday.
State media reported Tuesday that a hospital director in the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, died from the disease.
Liu Zhiming, director of Wuchang Hospital, died from the disease on Tuesday morning, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The state-run newswire China News Service previously reported he had died on Monday, but the announcement was later deleted from the microblogging site Weibo.
Cities continued to tighten their restrictions meant to curb the spread of the virus.
Beijing on Monday cordoned off its hutongs, traditional alleyways in the center of the city, with community members restricting nonresidents’ access.
The Beijing International Automobile Exhibition, which was supposed to take place from April 21 to 30, has been postponed due to the outbreak, the organizers said.
Meanwhile, the number of people who have tested positive for Sars-CoV-2 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Japan has risen by 88 to 542 cases.
Sixty-five of the confirmed cases do not show any symptoms, the Japanese Health Ministry said. All those infected have been taken to local hospitals, local media reported.
Israel’s health minister said a dozen Israelis on board the Diamond Princess will be flown to Israel on Thursday. Three Israelis have been infected and are hospitalized in Japan.
