The National Weather Service is predicting another weak hurricane season, but a potentially more severe wildfire season.
At a news conference Wednesday, the NWS revealed its predictions for the 2022 hurricane season in the Central Pacific: a 60% chance of lower-than-normal tropical storm activity, and only a 10% chance of higher-than-normal activity.
Christopher Brenchley, director of the NWS’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said only two to four tropical cyclones are anticipated to form or move into the Central Pacific this hurricane season, which is even fewer than the NWS predicted last year.
In 2021, the NWS predicted two to five cyclones, but only one actually developed.
Brenchley said that 2022 will likely keep the state in the grip of La Nina, which in Hawaii is the half of the El Nino/La Nina climate cycle that brings drier weather and colder ocean temperatures. La Nina also is what kept the 2021 hurricane season so mild.
“When we have a La Nina condition, it creates conditions over our area where we have a lot of frequent wind shear,” Brenchley said. “Wind shear is something hurricanes don’t do well with — they tend to weaken significantly and shear apart.”
Of course, Brenchley continued, the NWS cannot predict the path of a tropical cyclone that has yet to form. Even if only one storm forms this season, it can still be deadly if it makes landfall in Hawaii.
Brenchley urged residents to make a hurricane preparedness plan and share it with their families.
Dennis Hwang of the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program announced a series of online webinars hosted by AARP throughout June that will help Hawaii residents prepare for an emergency.
The NWS predicts La Nina will intensify drought conditions throughout the state, increasing the risk of wildfires.
NWS hydrologist Kevin Kodama said the leeward parts of the state are already “pretty crispy” and expects the state’s wildfire season to peak as early as June.
Kodama warned that even windward parts of the state cannot necessarily count on being immune to drought conditions.
“Even though we might have persistent trade winds, and you may think we’ll have continued trade wind showers, the way drought manifests itself on the windward slopes is that you may have the normal number of days with rain, but the amount of rain per day can be substantially reduced, even by half the amount,” Kodama said.
In a statement, Mayor Mitch Roth urged residents to be cautious and prepared during the hurricane season and dry season.
“Last summer brought the largest wildfire in state history, which taught us a lot about how quickly fires can spread during a drought,” Roth said in the statement. “That said, we will continue to monitor the island for potential fire threats and alert the community as any situations arise.
“We’ve proved through the pandemic to be a resilient community, and being prepared is a cornerstone of that resilience,” Roth continued. “Together we can overcome all odds.”
Kodama said this is only the third time in the last 50 years where three consecutive La Nina events have been recorded in the state. The most recent was at the turn of the century, from 1998-2001, which brought a persistent drought to the Big Island.
“As an island, we should always be alert and aware of the threat of natural disaster, and the best way of doing that is to stay informed,” Roth said in his statement. “Residents can visit our Civil Defense website for informational materials on disaster preparedness, as well as to see when we will be doing community outreach in varying neighborhoods to help our residents be more prepared.
“The best thing to do is have a family plan in the event of an emergency.”
Residents can register for the AARP disaster preparedness webinars held in June at aarp.cvent.com/hiprepare2022. They will be from 10 a.m.to 11 a.m. every Saturday that month.
Email Michael Brestovansky at mbrestovansky@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
