The kona low system that swept over the state at the end of November gave Big Islanders, especially those using water catchment systems, a welcome respite from the drought.
But there’s no change in the long-term prospects for an abnormally dry rainy season, according to Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
“The forecast remains the same,” Kodama told the Tribune-Herald on Wednesday. “We haven’t even hit peak El Nino dryness yet. It’s good that we got this amount of rainfall in November. But stay tuned. If you’re on catchment, don’t take long showers. Don’t go using all your water.”
The Pahoa rain gauge logged the most rainfall for the month of November, a total of 20.68 inches, or 129% of its norm for the month. That said, 12.51 inches of that rain fell on Nov. 30, the final day of the month.
And even though the kona low produced significant rainfall on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, most windward Big Island rain gauges tallied below- to near-average totals for the month.
Hilo International Airport recorded 11.46 inches, or 80% of its average November.
“When you’re comparing it to the average of the wettest month of the year, it’s a high standard to meet,” Kodama said. “But October was an all-time dry for Hilo airport.”
Glenwood, in the upper Puna rainforest, got just under 10 inches in November, but usually gets 25 inches during that month. And Laupahoehoe tallied 13.84 inches for the month, 84% of its norm.
And while the windward side received almost daily rain in early December, Kodama notes that the precipitation has been tapering off.
Hilo airport recorded 1.39 inches on Dec. 1 but less than an inch-and-a-half of rain since then (as of Thursday). And 3.01 inches fell on Mountain View on Dec. 1, but as of Thursday, the usually rainy upslope hamlet has reported just over 2 inches since.
“I mentioned to (Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator) Talmadge Magno that with the 2009-2010 El Nino, which produced a pretty strong drought, it was wet in November, as well,” Kodama said. “And then, it really dried out in late November, all the way through February. Coming out of that November rain, it dried out pretty quick.”
The kona low also impacted leeward areas of the island.
“You go up to the Kohala mountains, they were at 40% to 60% of average,” Kodama said. “They got rain, and they were telling me they were happy because they were in such bad shape from October, and it helped.”
The normally sun-drenched tarmac at Ellison Onizuka Kona International Airport at Keahole experienced a downpour at the end of November, resulting in 2.6 inches of rain for the month. That was more than thrice its November norm.
It’s been only sunshine greeting Kona arrivals this month, however, with only 0.07 inches of rain in the first week of 2023’s final month.
The four official Kona coffee belt rain gauges — which normally has their wet season in the summer, as opposed to the rest of the state — all reported more than twice their normal November rainfall. Kainaliu led the way with 8.02 inches, followed by Kealakekua, with 7.66, Honaunau, with 7.04 and Waiaha, with 6.12.
Bill Myers, CEO Heavenly Hawaiian 100% Kona Coffee, said the out-of-season deluge has had “a very interesting effect” on his Holualoa coffee farm.
“We actually came out of a two-month drought at the beginning of November,” said Myers. “And that has had an effect on the harvest. It didn’t reduce the harvest. It made the crop ripen a little bit earlier and the beans are a little smaller, but we’re very happy.
“We got good yields. Everything worked out really well. And that’s true of our neighbors, too, in our part of the Kona coffee belt, generally.”
According to Myers, the kona low rainfall at the end of November “shocked the trees.”
“The trees think it’s springtime and the drought’s over. So they have begun to flower,” he said. “This is the earliest flowering I can remember. The flowering is the first step in the production of the cherries, and typically, when you have flowers, seven months later you’re harvesting. We would have a very early harvest next year if this continues.
“What we’re hoping is we’ll revert to norm, the rain sort of settles back, and we get one early harvest that, essentially, we’ll ignore. We’ll pick it, but it won’t be a lot. It’ll be very hard in May and early June to get pickers. They just aren’t around.
“But if this rainfall continues, then we could have a really early harvest next year, and everyone will have to adjust to it.”
Kodama, however, isn’t backing off his earlier long-range forecast of the El Nino causing moderate to severe drought for much of the island.
“I think the El Nino ridge is going to settle in in late December, early January, and then it’ll be dry going forward. We haven’t hit peak El Nino dryness yet,” he said.
“It’s good that you got that rain, especially if you’re on catchment. But conserve water, because it doesn’t look like there are any major rain events coming.”
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
